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Emerging Market Yield Spreads: Domestic, External Determinants, and Volatility Spillovers

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  • Pierre L. Siklos

    (Wilfrid Laurier University and Viessmann European Research Centre, Waterloo, ON, Canada; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Rimini, Italy)

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of bond yield spreads for 22 emerging markets in the period 1998-2009. In addition to the usual EMBI index data from credit default swaps (CDS) are also used. Three sets of determinants are considered: domestic, external, and institutional factors. In addition, I consider the connection between volatility and bond yield spreads. Volatility, and central bank transparency, are two factors common to all countries examined whereas clear idiosyncrasies are found according to whether emerging markets are in Latin and South America, Europe, Asia or Africa. Most notably, the global financial financial crisis did not impact yield spreads in Asia which suggests that, in a sense, bond markets in that region were decoupled from those in other parts of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre L. Siklos, 2011. "Emerging Market Yield Spreads: Domestic, External Determinants, and Volatility Spillovers," Working Paper series 03_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:03_11
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    3. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    4. Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2017. "Frontier and emerging government bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 232-255.
    5. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2021. "The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 499-525, December.
    6. Faruk Balli & Hassan Ghassan & Essam H. Jeefri, 2021. "Sukuk and bond spreads," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 529-543, July.
      • Balli, Faruk & Ghassan, Hassan B. & Al-Jefri, Essam H., 2020. "Sukuk and bond spreads," MPRA Paper 106729, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Jan 2021.
    7. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10142, South African Reserve Bank.
    8. Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Doumet, Markus, 2021. "Measuring changes in credit risk: The case of CDS event studies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    9. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
    10. Dachraoui, Hajer & Smida, Mounir & Sebri, Maamar, 2020. "Role of capital flight as a driver of sovereign bond spreads in Latin American countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 15-33.
    11. Kady Keita & Mr. Gene L. Leon & Frederico Lima, 2019. "Do Financial Markets Value Quality of Fiscal Governance?," IMF Working Papers 2019/218, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Mr. Olumuyiwa S Adedeji & Lamin Njie, 2015. "International Sovereign Bonds by Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Drivers of Issuance and Spreads," IMF Working Papers 2015/275, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Martinez, Lisana B. & Terceño, Antonio & Teruel, Mercedes, 2013. "Sovereign bond spreads determinants in Latin American countries: Before and during the XXI financial crisis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 60-75.
    14. Lee, Yen-Hsien & Tucker, Alan L. & Wang, David K. & Pao, Hsin-Ting, 2014. "Global contagion of market sentiment during the US subprime crisis," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 17-26.
    15. Masahiro Inoguchi, 2021. "The impact of foreign capital flows on long‐term interest rates in emerging and advanced economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(2), pages 268-295, May.
    16. Cayirli, Omer & Aktas, Huseyin & Kayalidere, Koray, 2022. "A closer look into the behavior of emerging market sovereign spreads: State-dependent and asymmetric behaviors," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 522-548.
    17. Sorin Gabriel Anton, 2011. "The Local Determinants Of Emerging Market Sovereign Cds Spreads In The Context Of The Debt Crisis. An Explanatory Study "," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 58, pages 41-52, november.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging markets; yield spreads; volatility; transparency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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