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Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia

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  • Mikhail Stolbov

Abstract

The article analyses external and domestic determinants of Russian sovereign credit risk from January 2001 to May 2015. The analysis is conducted in a time series framework, involving the ARDL approach and VECM model. External risk factors outperform domestic fundamentals. The VIX index and oil prices are the most important factors, followed by the Fitch credit rating changes and TED spread. There is evidence for the piggyback effect by S&P whose credit rating changes are driven by Fitch Ratings and Moody’s decisions. Among macroeconomic fundamentals only exchange rate dynamics and foreign reserves appear significant. The importance of the fundamentals further decreases when Granger (no) causality tests are conducted. The findings reveal a limited role of domestic macroeconomic policy in curbing Russian sovereign credit risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:29:y:2017:i:1:p:51-70
    DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2016.1237045
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    3. Nader Naifar & Shumokh Aljarba, 2023. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
    4. Mathias Manguzvane & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Exchange rate risk and sovereign debt risk in South Africa: A Regime Dependent Approach," Economics Working Papers edwrg-04-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    5. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    6. M. Utku Özmen, 2019. "Economic complexity and sovereign risk premia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(3), pages 1714-1726.

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