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Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings

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  • Alsakka, Rasha
  • ap Gwilym, Owain

Abstract

This paper analyses lead-lag relationships in sovereign ratings across five agencies, and finds evidence of interdependence in rating actions. Upgrade (downgrade) probabilities are much higher, and downgrade (upgrade) probabilities are much lower for a sovereign issuer with a recent upgrade (downgrade) by another agency. S&P tends to demonstrate the least dependence on other agencies, and Moody's tends to be the first mover in upgrades. Rating actions by Japanese agencies tend to lag those of the larger agencies, although there is some evidence that they lead Moody's downgrades.

Suggested Citation

  • Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2614-2626
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    References listed on IDEAS

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