Foreign exchange market reactions to sovereign credit news
We analyse the reaction of the foreign exchange spot market to sovereign credit signals by Fitch, Moody’s and S&P during 1994–2010. We find that positive and negative credit news affects both the own-country exchange rate and other countries’ exchange rates. We provide evidence on unequal responses to the three agencies’ signals. Fitch signals induce the most timely market responses, and the market also reacts strongly to S&P negative outlook signals. Credit outlook and watch actions and multiple notch rating changes have more impact than one-notch rating changes. Considerable differences in the market reactions to sovereign credit events are highlighted in emerging versus developed economies, and in various geographical regions.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- H. Kent Baker & Sattar A. Mansi, 2002. "Assessing Credit Rating Agencies by Bond Issuers and Institutional Investors," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9&10), pages 1367-1398.
- Loría, Eduardo & Sánchez, Armando & Salgado, Uberto, 2010. "New evidence on the monetary approach of exchange rate determination in Mexico 1994-2007: A cointegrated SVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 540-554, April.
- Hooper, Vince & Hume, Timothy & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2008. "Sovereign rating changes--Do they provide new information for stock markets?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 142-166, June.
- Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Goldstein, Morris, 2000.
"Notes on contagion,"
24569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100, January.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: Empirical Results from The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Some Policy Issues Regarding an Early Warning System," MPRA Paper 24580, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "The Wake of Crises and Devaluations," MPRA Paper 24570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Methodology for an Early Warning System: The Signals Approach," MPRA Paper 24576, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Early Warning System: An Assessment of Vulnerability," MPRA Paper 24579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Simpson, Marc W. & Ramchander, Sanjay & Chaudhry, Mukesh, 2005. "The impact of macroeconomic surprises on spot and forward foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 693-718, September.
- Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004.
"Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
- Amadou N Sy, 2003. "Rating the Rating Agencies; Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?," IMF Working Papers 03/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
- Dubas, Justin M. & Lee, Byung-Joo & Mark, Nelson C., 2010. "A multinomial logit approach to exchange rate policy classification with an application to growth," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1438-1462, November.
- Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005.
"News spillovers in the sovereign debt market,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
- Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
- Suk‐Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2011. "International Bank Flows To Emerging Markets: Influence Of Sovereign Credit Ratings And Their Regional Spillover Effects," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 331-364, 06.
- Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2007. "Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3162-3182, October.
- William P. Killeen & Richard K. Lyons & Michael J. Moore, 2001.
"Fixed versus Flexible: Lessons from EMS Order Flow,"
NBER Working Papers
8491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Killeen, William P. & Lyons, Richard K. & Moore, Michael J., 2006. "Fixed versus flexible: Lessons from EMS order flow," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 551-579, June.
- Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Patricio A Valenzuela & Kevin Cowan, 2007. "Sovereign Ceilings â€œLiteâ€ ? The Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 07/75, International Monetary Fund.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
- Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
- Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1309-1347, November/.
- Graciela Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2002.
"Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 171-195, August.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2001. "Emerging markets instability: do sovereign ratings affect country risk and stock returns?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2678, The World Bank.
- Li, Huimin & Jeon, Bang Nam & Cho, Seong-Yeon & Chiang, Thomas C., 2008. "The impact of sovereign rating changes and financial contagion on stock market returns: Evidence from five Asian countries," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 46-55.
- Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009.
"What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?,"
Working Paper Series
1060, European Central Bank.
- Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1390-1407, December.
- von Hagen, Jurgen & Zhou, Jizhong, 2007. "The choice of exchange rate regimes in developing countries: A multinomial panel analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1071-1094, November.
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-52, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:4:p:845-864. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.