Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook
We analyse sovereign watch and outlook signals from Moody's, S&P and Fitch. Prior literature shows strong market reactions to these signals, which arguably contain more new information than rating changes. We show that the agencies' actions imply different policies: S&P has more emphasis on short-term accuracy, while Moody's actions are consistent with greater stability. We find evidence of momentum in negative (not positive) outlook signals, but no watch momentum. We also examine the lead–lag relationships, finding that S&P (Fitch) demonstrates the least (most) links with other agencies' actions. Moody's tends to be the first mover for positive outlook and watch signals.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 21 (2012)
Issue (Month): C ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mathis, Jérôme & McAndrews, James & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2009. "Rating the raters: Are reputation concerns powerful enough to discipline rating agencies?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(5), pages 657-674, July.
- Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004.
"Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
- Amadou N Sy, 2003. "Rating the Rating Agencies; Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises?," IMF Working Papers 03/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Hand, John R M & Holthausen, Robert W & Leftwich, Richard W, 1992. " The Effect of Bond Rating Agency Announcements on Bond and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 733-752, June.
- Breitenfellner, Bastian & Wagner, Niklas, 2010. "Government intervention in response to the subprime financial crisis: The good into the pot, the bad into the crop," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 289-297, September.
- Gande, Amar & Parsley, David C., 2005. "News spillovers in the sovereign debt market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 691-734, March.
- Amar Gande & David Parsley, 2003. "News Spillovers in the Sovereign Debt Market," Working Papers 062003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
- Suk‐Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2011. "International Bank Flows To Emerging Markets: Influence Of Sovereign Credit Ratings And Their Regional Spillover Effects," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 34(2), pages 331-364, June.
- Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3448-3469, April.
- Elena Kalotychou & Ana-Maria Fuertes, 2006. "On Sovereign Credit Migration: A Study of Alternative Estimators and Rating Dynamics," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 509, Society for Computational Economics.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational efficiency of credit default swap and stock markets: The impact of credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2813-2843, November.
- Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2004. "Informational Efficiency of Credit Default Swap and Stock Markets: The Impact of Credit Rating Announcements," CEPR Discussion Papers 4250, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Hooper, Vince & Hume, Timothy & Kim, Suk-Joong, 2008. "Sovereign rating changes--Do they provide new information for stock markets?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 142-166, June.
- Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
- Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
- Pukthuanthong-Le, Kuntara & Elayan, Fayez A. & Rose, Lawrence C., 2007. "Equity and debt market responses to sovereign credit ratings announcement," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-83.
- Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
- Paula Hill & Robert Faff, 2010. "The Market Impact of Relative Agency Activity in the Sovereign Ratings Market," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(9-10), pages 1309-1347, November/.
- Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2007. "Does sovereign debt ratings news spill over to international stock markets?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3162-3182, October.
- Livingston, Miles & Naranjo, Andy & Zhou, Lei, 2008. "Split bond ratings and rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1613-1624, August.
- Ismailescu, Iuliana & Kazemi, Hossein, 2010. "The reaction of emerging market credit default swap spreads to sovereign credit rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2861-2873, December.
- Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2008. "Sovereign credit ratings, capital flows and financial sector development in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 17-39, March.
- Guttler, Andre & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2007. "The adjustment of credit ratings in advance of defaults," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 751-767, March.
- Sundmacher, Maike & Ellis, Craig, 2011. "Bank 'ratings arbitrage': Is LGD a blind spot in economic capital calculations?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 6-11, January.
- Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)