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Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets

Author

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  • Rasha Alsakka

    () (Bangor University)

  • Owain ap Gwilym

    () (Bangor University)

Abstract

The demand for sovereign ratings in emerging economies has grown rapidly in recent years due to globalisation of financial markets, and investors’ increasing focus on international diversification. This paper investigates the quantitative determinants of sovereign ratings in emerging markets provided by six international agencies. The study also examines the effects of changes in economic and financial conditions of emerging countries on sovereign rating migrations. The findings show that a large set of economic fundamentals is essential in modelling levels and changes in emerging sovereign ratings. Rating behaviour varies across different economic/financial circumstances, highlighting the heterogeneity of emerging sovereign ratings. Evidence of different rating processes across agencies and dissimilar behaviour of upgrades and downgrades is presented.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets," Working Papers 10009, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
  • Handle: RePEc:bng:wpaper:10009
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    File URL: http://www.bangor.ac.uk/business/docs/BBSWP10009.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
    2. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "On sovereign credit migration: A study of alternative estimators and rating dynamics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3448-3469, April.
    3. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    4. Christian B. Mulder & Brieuc Monfort, 2000. "Using Credit Ratings for Capital Requirementson Lending to Emerging Market Economies; Possible Impact of a New Basel Accord," IMF Working Papers 00/69, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    6. Constantin Mellios & Eric Paget-Blanc, 2006. "Which factors determine sovereign credit ratings?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 361-377.
    7. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    8. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    9. Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert W. & Hillier, David & Hillier, Joseph, 2004. "The national market impact of sovereign rating changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 233-250, January.
    10. Roberto Perrelli & Christian B. Mulder, 2001. "Foreign Currency Credit Ratings for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 01/191, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
    12. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
    13. Kadam, Ashay & Lenk, Peter, 2008. "Bayesian inference for issuer heterogeneity in credit ratings migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2267-2274, October.
    14. Brewer, Thomas L & Rivoli, Pietra, 1990. "Politics and Perceived Country Creditworthiness in International Banking," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(3), pages 357-369, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2012. "The Causes and Extent of Split Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 4-24, January.
    2. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2012. "The Causes and Extent of Split Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 4-24, January.

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