IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/boe/boeewp/133.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stability of ratings transitions

Author

Listed:
  • Pamela Nickell
  • William Perraudin
  • Simone Varotto

Abstract

The distribution of ratings changes plays a crucial role in many credit risk models. As is well known, these distributions vary across time and different issuer types. Ignoring such dependencies may lead to inaccurate assessments of credit risk. In this paper, a quantification is provided of the dependence of ratings transition probabilities on the industry and domicile of the obligor, and on the stage of the business cycle. The incremental impact of these factors is identified using ordered probit models. This approach gives a clearer picture (than is obtained by comparing transition matrices estimated from different sub-samples) of which conditioning factors are important.

Suggested Citation

  • Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:133
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2001/wp133.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean Helwege & Paul Kleiman, 1996. "Understanding aggregate default rates of high yield bonds," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 2(May).
    2. Stella Cheung, 1996. "Provincial Credit Rating in Canada: An Ordered Probit Analysis," Staff Working Papers 96-6, Bank of Canada.
    3. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1994. "The credit rating industry," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(Sum), pages 1-26.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Jannone Bellot, MaLuisa Marti Selva, Leandro Garcia Menendez, 2017. "Herding Behaviour among Credit Rating Agencies," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(1), pages 56-83, March.
    2. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    3. Nima Mirzaei & Béla Vizvári, 2015. "A New Approach to Reconstruction of Moody’s Rating System for Countries Investment Risk Rating," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 167-182.
    4. Ferri, Giovanni & Liu, Li-Gang & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-148, January.
    5. Sironi, Andrea, 2003. "Testing for Market Discipline in the European Banking Industry: Evidence from Subordinated Debt Issues," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 443-472, June.
    6. Jiang, Xianfeng & Packer, Frank, 2019. "Credit ratings of Chinese firms by domestic and global agencies: Assessing the determinants and impact," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 178-193.
    7. Shen, Chung-Hua & Huang, Yu-Li & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2012. "Asymmetric benchmarking in bank credit rating," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 171-193.
    8. Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
    9. Kallberg, Jarl G. & Udell, Gregory F., 2003. "The value of private sector business credit information sharing: The US case," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 449-469, March.
    10. Feng, D. & Gourieroux, C. & Jasiak, J., 2008. "The ordered qualitative model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 111-130, January.
    11. Abad, Pilar & Díaz, Antonio & Escribano, Ana & Robles, M.-Dolores, 2021. "Crossing boundaries beyond the investment grade: Induced trading by rating-contingent investment constraints," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Mahir Binici & Michael Hutchison, 2013. "Credit ratings and the pricing of sovereign debt during the euro crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(3), pages 582-609, AUTUMN.
    13. Robert Brooks & Shelley Claire Naylor, 2008. "An ordered probit model of Morningstar individual stock ratings," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 4(5), pages 341-345.
    14. Ferri, Giovanni & Lacitignola, Punziana & Lee, Jeong Yeon, 2013. "Foreign ownership and the credibility of national rating agencies: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 762-776.
    15. Andrés Leal Marcos & Julio López Laborda, 2009. "Efectos externos del endeudamiento sobre la calificación crediticia de las Comunidades Autónomas," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 189(2), pages 81-106, June.
    16. Jiang, John (Xuefeng) & Harris Stanford, Mary & Xie, Yuan, 2012. "Does it matter who pays for bond ratings? Historical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 607-621.
    17. Sandow, Sven & Friedman, Craig & Gold, Mark & Chang, Peter, 2006. "Economy-wide bond default rates: A maximum expected utility approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 679-693, February.
    18. Stefano Schiavo, 2005. "Euro bonds: in search of financial spillovers," Sciences Po publications 2, Sciences Po.
    19. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, October.
    20. Zalata, Alaa Mansour & Roberts, Clare, 2017. "Managing earnings using classification shifting: UK evidence," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 52-65.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:133. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Media Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/boegvuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.