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A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations

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  • Alsakka, Rasha
  • ap Gwilym, Owain

Abstract

Employing a random effects ordered probit model, this paper examines the sources of heterogeneity in sovereign credit ratings in emerging economies. The analysis uses data from six rating agencies for 90 countries. The model highlights the importance of considering the cross-section error, which captures country-specific heterogeneity, in modelling rating upgrades. Watchlist status is a powerful tool in predicting future rating upgrades/downgrades, and dominates rating momentum in some cases. Rating duration and existing rating are important determinants of rating migrations. Evidence of inter-agency differences and dissimilar behaviour of upgrades and downgrades is presented.

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  • Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:7:y:2010:i:3:p:140-147
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    Cited by:

    1. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "Sovereign Ratings and Migrations: Emerging Markets," Working Papers 10009, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    2. Peng Nie & Alfonso Sousa-Poza & Jianhong Xue, 2016. "Fuel for Life: Domestic Cooking Fuels and Women’s Health in Rural China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Purificación Parrado-Martínez & Antonio Partal-Ureña & Pilar Gómez Fernández-Aguado, 2016. "Banking Soundness Indicators and Sovereign Risk in Time of Crisis: The Case of the European Union," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1172-1193, August.
    4. Purificacion Parrado-Martinez & Antonio Parta Ureña & Pilar Gomez Fernandez-Aguado, 2014. "Usefulness of Financial Soundness Indicators for risk assessment: The case of EU member countries," Working Papers 14.01, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Financial Economics and Accounting (former Department of Business Administration).
    5. Liang, H. & Renneboog, L.D.R., 2013. "The Foundations of Corporate Social Responsibility (replaced by CentER DP 2014-069)," Other publications TiSEM 16b08907-926a-4eab-bbde-8, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Liang, Hao & Renneboog, Luc, 2017. "On the foundations of corporate social responsibility," Other publications TiSEM c6821f0a-e7f0-41da-adba-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Huseyin Ozturk*, 2014. "The origin of bias in sovereign credit ratings: reconciling agency views with institutional quality," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 48(4), pages 161-188, October-D.

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