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Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Afonso
  • Pedro Gomes
  • Philipp Rother

Abstract

Using ordered logit and probit plus random effects ordered probit approaches, we study the determinants of sovereign debt ratings. We found that the last procedure is the best for panel data as it takes into account the additional cross-section error.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2009. "Ordered response models for sovereign debt ratings," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(8), pages 769-773.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:16:y:2009:i:8:p:769-773
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850701221931
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sophia Rabe-Hesketh & Andrew Pickles & Colin Taylor, 2000. "Generalized linear latent and mixed models," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(53).
    2. Yannis M. Ioannides & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 2007. "Unemployment and liquidity constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 479-510.
    3. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee, 2005. "An analysis of the determinants of sovereign ratings," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 251-280, February.
    4. Guillaume R. Frechette, 2001. "Random-effects ordered probit," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(59).
    5. Hu, Yen-Ting & Kiesel, Rudiger & Perraudin, William, 2002. "The estimation of transition matrices for sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1383-1406, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Bruha & Moritz Karber & Beatrice Pierluigi & Ralph Setzer, 2017. "Understanding Rating Movements in Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    2. repec:gei:jnlfer:v:2:y:2017:i:1:p:56-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
    4. Reusens, Peter & Croux, Christophe, 2017. "Sovereign credit rating determinants: A comparison before and after the European debt crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 108-121.
    5. Ozturk, Huseyin & Namli, Ersin & Erdal, Halil Ibrahim, 2016. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings: The accuracy of models in a heterogeneous sample," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 469-478.
    6. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    7. Broto, Carmen & Molina, Luis, 2016. "Sovereign ratings and their asymmetric response to fundamentals," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 206-224.
    8. Manfred Gärtner & Björn Griesbach & Florian Jung, 2011. "PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(3), pages 288-299, August.
    9. repec:pal:compes:v:59:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1057_s41294-017-0024-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2015. "Short- and long-run behaviour of long-term sovereign bond yields," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 3971-3993, August.
    11. Freitag L., 2014. "Procyclicality and path dependence of sovereign credit ratings: The example of Europe," Research Memorandum 020, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    12. repec:spr:jqecon:v:15:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s40953-016-0064-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Peter Claeys & Borek Vašícek, 2012. "“Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating News”," IREA Working Papers 201219, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Nov 2012.
    14. Huseyin Ozturk & Ersin Namli & Halil Ibrahim Erdal, 2016. "Reducing Overreliance on Sovereign Credit Ratings: Which Model Serves Better?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 48(1), pages 59-81, June.
    15. Robert V. Breunig & Tse Chern Chia, 2015. "Sovereign Ratings and Oil-Exporting Countries: The Effect of High Oil Prices on Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 113-138, March.
    16. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:3:p:288-299 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "A random effects ordered probit model for rating migrations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 140-147, September.
    18. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Brůha, Jan & Setzer, Ralph & Karber, Moritz, 2017. "Understanding sovereign rating movements in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 2011, European Central Bank.
    19. Basu, Kaushik & De, Supriyo & Ratha, Dilip & Timmer, Hans, 2013. "Sovereign ratings in the post-crisis world : an analysis of actual, shadow and relative risk ratings," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6641, The World Bank.
    20. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    21. Davor Kunovac & Rafael Ravnik, 2017. "Are sovereign credit ratings overrated?," Working Papers 47, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    22. Andrés Leal Marcos & Julio López Laborda, 2009. "Efectos externos del endeudamiento sobre la calificación crediticia de las Comunidades Autónomas," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 189(2), pages 81-106, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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