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Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Afonso

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Joao Tovar Jalles

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Ana Venancio

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

We link governments’ spending efficiency scores, to sovereign debt assessments made by financial markets´, more specifically by three rating agencies (Standard & Poors, Moody´s and Fitch). Public efficiency scores are computed via data envelopment analysis. Then, we rely notably on ordered response models to estimate the response of sovereign ratings to changes in efficiency scores. Covering 34 OECD countries over the period 2007-2018, we find that increased public spending efficiency is rewarded by financial markets via higher sovereign debt ratings. In addition, higher inflation and government indebtedness lead to sovereign rating downgrades, while higher foreign reserves contribute to rating upgrades.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Afonso & Joao Tovar Jalles & Ana Venancio, 2021. "Do Financial Markets Reward Government Spending Efficiency?," Working Papers 2021.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2021.01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves, 2022. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," Working Papers REM 2022/0226, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    2. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2022. "A Tale of Government Spending Efficiency and Trust in the State," CESifo Working Paper Series 10075, CESifo.
    3. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles & Ana Venâncio, 2023. "Government Spending and Tax Revenue Decentralization and Public Sector Efficiency: Do Natural Disasters Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10424, CESifo.
    4. Lucas Menescal & José Alves, 2023. "Tax structure and public sector efficiency: new evidence for developing countries," Working Papers REM 2023/0291, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government spending efficiency; DEA; panel analysis; ordered probit (logit); sovereign ratings; rating agencies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods

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