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Split bond ratings and rating migration

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  • Livingston, Miles
  • Naranjo, Andy
  • Zhou, Lei

Abstract

This paper examines the relationships between split ratings and ratings migration. We find that bonds with split ratings are more likely to have future rating changes. A one-notch (more-than-one-notch) split rating increases the probability of rating change within one year of initial issuance by about 3% (6%). Furthermore, we find that about 30% of split rated bonds have their two ratings converge after four years of initial issuance. The rating convergence tapers off after three years, and the rating agency with a higher (lower) initial rating generally maintains a higher (lower) rating in subsequent years if the two ratings do not converge. We also show that rating transition estimation can be improved by taking into consideration split ratings. We find that one-year rating transition matrices are significantly different between non-letter-split rated bonds and letter-split rated bonds, and we show that the difference has an economically significant impact on the pricing of credit spread options and VaR-based risk management models. Overall, our results suggest that split ratings contain important information about subsequent rating changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Livingston, Miles & Naranjo, Andy & Zhou, Lei, 2008. "Split bond ratings and rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 1613-1624, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:8:p:1613-1624
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris Gavalas & Theodore Syriopoulos, 2014. "Bank Credit Risk Management and Migration Analysis; Conditioning Transition Matrices on the Stage of the Business Cycle," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 20(2), pages 151-166, May.
    2. Güntay, Levent & Hackbarth, Dirk, 2010. "Corporate bond credit spreads and forecast dispersion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2328-2345, October.
    3. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2009. "Heterogeneity of sovereign rating migrations in emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 151-165, June.
    4. Stolper, Anno, 2009. "Regulation of credit rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1266-1273, July.
    5. Dorn, Jochen, 2010. "Modeling of CPDOs - Identifying optimal and implied leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1371-1382, June.
    6. Alexandr Karminsky & Anatoly Peresetsky, 2009. "Ratings as Measure of Financial Risk: Evolution, Function and Usage," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 1-2, pages 86-102.
    7. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 45-55.
    8. Hill, Paula & Brooks, Robert & Faff, Robert, 2010. "Variations in sovereign credit quality assessments across rating agencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1327-1343, June.
    9. Tsaig, Yaakov & Levy, Amnon & Wang, Yashan, 2011. "Analyzing the impact of credit migration in a portfolio setting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 3145-3157.
    10. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
    11. Andres, Christian & Betzer, André & Limbach, Peter, 2014. "Underwriter reputation and the quality of certification: Evidence from high-yield bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 97-115.
    12. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2013. "The impact of sovereign rating actions on bank ratings in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 563-577.
    13. May, Anthony D., 2010. "The impact of bond rating changes on corporate bond prices: New evidence from the over-the-counter market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2822-2836, November.
    14. repec:kap:iaecre:v:20:y:2014:i:2:p:151-166 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2012. "The Causes and Extent of Split Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 4-24, January.
    16. Huong Dang, 2014. "How dimensions of national culture and institutional characteristics influence sovereign rating migration dynamics," ZenTra Working Papers in Transnational Studies 42 / 2014, ZenTra - Center for Transnational Studies.
    17. Bannier, Christina E. & Hirsch, Christian W., 2010. "The economic function of credit rating agencies - What does the watchlist tell us?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 3037-3049, December.
    18. Al-Sakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Split sovereign ratings and rating migrations in emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 79-97, June.
    19. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2010. "The Extent and Causes of Sovereign Split Ratings," Working Papers 10008, Bangor Business School, Prifysgol Bangor University (Cymru / Wales).
    20. Rasha Alsakka & Owain ap Gwilym, 2012. "The Causes and Extent of Split Sovereign Credit Ratings in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 48(1), pages 4-24, January.
    21. Christian Andres & André Betzer & Peter Limbach, 2013. "Underwriter Reputation and the Quality of Certification: Evidence from High-Yield Bonds," Schumpeter Discussion Papers SDP13006, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    22. Chateau, John-Peter D., 2009. "Marking-to-model credit and operational risks of loan commitments: A Basel-2 advanced internal ratings-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 260-270, December.
    23. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain & Vu, Tuyet Nhung, 2014. "The sovereign-bank rating channel and rating agencies' downgrades during the European debt crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 235-257.
    24. Mohamed Abulgasem A. Elhaj & Nurul Aini Muhamed & Nathasa Mazna Ramli & Nor Balkish Zakaria, 2016. "Ownership Monitoring Mechanism over Sukuk Credit Rating," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(12), pages 700-720, December.

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