Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices
Credit migration matrices are cardinal inputs to many risk management applications. Their accurate estimation is therefore critical. We explore three approaches, cohort and two variants of duration—time homogeneous and non-homogeneous—and the resulting differences, both statistically through matrix norms and economically through credit portfolio and credit derivative models. We develop a testing procedure to assess statistically the differences between migration matrices using bootstrap techniques. The method can have substantial economic import: economic credit risk capital differences between economic regimes, recession vs. expansion, can be as large as difference implied by different estimation techniques. Ignoring the efficiency gain inherent in the duration methods by using the cohort method instead is more damaging that making a (possibly false) assumption of time-homogeneity.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3301 Steinberg Hall-Dietrich Hall, 3620 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104.6367|
Web page: http://fic.wharton.upenn.edu/fic/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002.
"Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
- Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
- Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
- Treacy, William F. & Carey, Mark, 2000. "Credit risk rating systems at large US banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 167-201, January.
- Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000.
"Stability of rating transitions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
- Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
- Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Doron Kliger & Oded Sarig, .
"The Information Value of Bond Ratings,"
Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers
13-97, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
- Donald P. Morgan, 2002. "Rating Banks: Risk and Uncertainty in an Opaque Industry," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 874-888, September.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- Robert B. Israel & Jeffrey S. Rosenthal & Jason Z. Wei, 2001. "Finding Generators for Markov Chains via Empirical Transition Matrices, with Applications to Credit Ratings," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 245-265.
- Acharya, Viral V & Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K, 2002. "Pricing Credit Derivatives with Rating Transitions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:pennin:03-08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Krichel)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.