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An Empirical Analysis of Equity Default Swaps (I): Univariate Insights

Author

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  • Arnaud_de_Servigny

    (Standard & Poor's)

  • Norbert_Jobst

    (Standard&Poor's)

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe a new methodology to assess the risk of any Equity Default Swap (EDS). We show that as credit ratings can measure counter-party risk, it is technically possible to provide a quantitatively derived “through the cycle” risk estimate for EDSs. Whereas in the case of CDSs, the assessment is relevant at an issuer level, for EDSs it makes sense at an issue level. The reason for such a difference is that unlike for pure credit risk, the risk on EDSs directly depends on equity market conditions at origination and is therefore not fully counterparty specific. The outcome of this paper is that though this new methodology is purely quantitative, its level of performance is surprisingly high with superior results compared to previously developed techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud_de_Servigny & Norbert_Jobst, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Default Swaps (I): Univariate Insights," International Finance 0503007, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpif:0503007
    Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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    File URL: https://econwpa.ub.uni-muenchen.de/econ-wp/if/papers/0503/0503007.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Til Schuermann & Yusuf Jafry, 2003. "Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Norbert_Jobst & Arnaud_de_Servigny, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Default Swaps (II): Multivariate Insights," Finance 0503025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    4. Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
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    1. Norbert_Jobst & Arnaud_de_Servigny, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Equity Default Swaps (II): Multivariate Insights," Finance 0503025, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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