Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions
We explore how general economic conditions impact defaults and major credit rating changes by fitting reduced-form Cox intensity models with a broad range of macroeconomic and firm-specific ratings-related variables. For all corporate issuers in the period 1981–2002 we find both types of factors strongly influenced the risk of a credit event. However, while the effects of ratings-related factors were consistent with expectations and very robust under different specifications, significance levels and even signs for the macro variable coefficients depended heavily on which other variables were included. This sheds light on the disparate results reported in earlier studies.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
- Guo, Feng & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2011. "Markets contagion during financial crisis: A regime-switching approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-109, January.
- Cynthia G. McDonald & Linda M. Van De Gucht, 1999. "High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 409-419, August.
- Guttler, Andre & Wahrenburg, Mark, 2007. "The adjustment of credit ratings in advance of defaults," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 751-767, March.
- Yan, Alice Xie & Shi, Jian & Wu, Chunchi, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-291.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Kräussl, Roman & Lucas, André, 2006.
"Credit cycles and macro fundamentals,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2006/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000.
"Stability of rating transitions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
- Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas & Andr� Monteiro, 2005.
"The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
- Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
- Christensen, Jens H.E. & Hansen, Ernst & Lando, David, 2004. "Confidence sets for continuous-time rating transition probabilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2575-2602, November.
- Stefan Buehler & Christian Kaiser & Franz Jaeger, 2005.
"Merge or Fail? The Determinants of Mergers and Bankruptcies in Switzerland, 1995-2000,"
SOI - Working Papers
0506, Socioeconomic Institute - University of Zurich.
- Buehler, Stefan & Kaiser, Christian & Jaeger, Franz, 2006. "Merge or fail? The determinants of mergers and bankruptcies in Switzerland, 1995-2000," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 88-95, January.
- Michael Lemmon & Evgenia Portniaguina, 2006. "Consumer Confidence and Asset Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1499-1529.
- Frydman, Halina & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1062-1075, June.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2004.
"Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
10449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Malcolm Baker & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2006. "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1645-1680, 08.
- Sanjiv Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2006.
"Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated,"
NBER Working Papers
11961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, 02.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:21:y:2012:i:1:p:87-105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.