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Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?

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  • Yan, Alice Xie
  • Shi, Jian
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

Using a popular three-factor term structure model that accounts for the correlation between default and interest rates to fit corporate bond yields, we uncover missing factors in the model. The principal component analysis indicates that the model residuals of bonds across different ratings and maturities are driven by some common factors. Further analysis shows that residuals exhibit significant negative correlation with the concurrent and lagged monthly returns of S&P 500. Our results suggest that the term structure model of corporate bonds should incorporate aggregate economic factors in order to better explain the term structure of corporate bond yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Yan, Alice Xie & Shi, Jian & Wu, Chunchi, 2008. "Do macroeconomic variables matter for pricing default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 279-291.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:17:y:2008:i:2:p:279-291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xuan & Zhao, Yang & Yao, Xiao, 2022. "Forecasting corporate default risk in China," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1054-1070.
    2. Lee, Shyan Yuan & Chiou, Wan-Jiun Paul & Chung, Yi-Fang, 2017. "Pricing corporate bonds and constructing credit curves in a developing country: The case of the Taiwan bond fund crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 261-274.
    3. Racheva-Sarabian, Anna & Ryvkin, Dmitry & Semykina, Anastasia, 2015. "The default of special district financing: Evidence from California," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 37-48.
    4. Marianna Succurro, 2017. "Financial Bankruptcy across European Countries," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 9(7), pages 132-146, July.
    5. Sun, David & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2013. "Diversifying Risks in Bond Portfolios: A Cross-border Approach," MPRA Paper 44767, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2014.
    6. Naifar, Nader, 2011. "What explains default risk premium during the financial crisis? Evidence from Japan," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 412-430, September.
    7. Haipeng Xing & Ying Chen, 2018. "Dependence of Structural Breaks in Rating Transition Dynamics on Economic and Market Variations," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 11, pages 1-18, February.
    8. Annaert, Jan & Claes, Anouk G.P. & De Ceuster, Marc J.K. & Zhang, Hairui, 2013. "Estimating the spot rate curve using the Nelson–Siegel model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 482-496.
    9. Daniel Jubinski & Amy F. Lipton, 2012. "Equity volatility, bond yields, and yield spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 480-503, May.
    10. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    11. Lee, Hei Wai & Xie, Yan Alice & Yau, Jot, 2011. "The impact of sovereign risk on bond duration: Evidence from Asian sovereign bond markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 441-451, June.
    12. Asif Lakhany & Andrej Pintar & Amber Zhang, 2021. "Calibrating the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson Model by Genetic Algorithm," Papers 2108.01760, arXiv.org.
    13. Amendola, Alessandra & Restaino, Marialuisa & Sensini, Luca, 2015. "An analysis of the determinants of financial distress in Italy: A competing risks approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 33-41.
    14. Thakerngkiat, Narongdech & Nguyen, Hung T. & Nguyen, Nhut H. & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2023. "Does fear spur default risk?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 879-899.
    15. Zhang, Xuan & Ouyang, Ruolan & Liu, Ding & Xu, Liao, 2020. "Determinants of corporate default risk in China: The role of financial constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 87-98.

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