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High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks

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  • Cynthia G. McDonald
  • Linda M. Van De Gucht

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates high-yield bond default and call behavior using a competing risks hazard model that simultaneously estimates the impact of bond age, issue-specific characteristics and business conditions on both events. Results reveal nonmonotonic aging effects: default rates increase and then drop while call rates first increase and then level off. Rating and coupon size affect default risk, while maturity and issue size impact only call rates. Defaults are more likely when economic conditions have worsened and no improvement is anticipated. Calls are more likely when interest rates have decreased but are expected to rise. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Suggested Citation

  • Cynthia G. McDonald & Linda M. Van De Gucht, 1999. "High-Yield Bond Default And Call Risks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 409-419, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:81:y:1999:i:3:p:409-419
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jens Hilscher & Mungo Wilson, 2011. "Credit ratings and credit risk," Working Papers 31, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
    2. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
    3. Vasso Ioannidou & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Policy, Risk-Taking, and Pricing: Evidence from a Quasi-Natural Experiment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 95-144.
    4. Gabriel Jiménez & Steven Ongena & José‐Luis Peydró & Jesús Saurina, 2014. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty‐Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk‐Taking?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 463-505, March.
    5. Meeks, Roland, 2012. "Do credit market shocks drive output fluctuations? Evidence from corporate spreads and defaults," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 568-584.
    6. Jiménez, Gabriel & Ongena, Steven & Peydró, José Luis & Saurina, Jesús, 2007. "Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy: What Do Twenty-Three Million Bank Loans Say About the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6514, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Pablo Kurlat, 2016. "The Social Value of Financial Expertise," NBER Working Papers 22047, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    9. repec:spr:schmbr:v:18:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s41464-017-0038-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Baele, L. & Farooq, M. & Ongena, S., 2012. "Of Religion and Redemption : Evidence from Default on Islamic Loans (Replaces CentER DP 2010-136)," Discussion Paper 2012-014, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    11. Baele, Lieven & Farooq, Moazzam & Ongena, Steven, 2014. "Of religion and redemption: Evidence from default on Islamic loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 141-159.
    12. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    13. Jean Helwege & Christo Pirinsky & René M. Stulz, 2007. "Why Do Firms Become Widely Held? An Analysis of the Dynamics of Corporate Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 995-1028, June.
    14. Kay Giesecke & Baeho Kim, 2011. "Systemic Risk: What Defaults Are Telling Us," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1387-1405, August.
    15. Michael Halling & Evelyn Hayden, 2008. "Bank failure prediction: a two-step survival time approach," IFC Bulletins chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 48-73 Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Jonathan Witmer, 2008. "An Examination of Canadian Firms Delisting from U.S. Exchanges," Staff Working Papers 08-11, Bank of Canada.
    17. Gielens, K. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2004. "How To Seize a Window of Opportunity: The Entry Strategy of Retail Firms into Transition Economies," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2004-038-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    18. Pablo Kurlat, 2017. "The Social Value of Financial Expertise," 2017 Meeting Papers 134, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    20. Roger WALDER, 2002. "Interactions Between Market and Credit Risk: Modeling the Joint Dynamics of Default-Free and Defaultable Bond Term Structures," FAME Research Paper Series rp56, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    21. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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