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Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic

Author

Listed:
  • Narcisa Kadlcakova
  • Joerg Keplinger

Abstract

This project undertakes an empirical analysis in credit risk modeling using a data sample representative of bank lending to the Czech corporate sector. A rating system is constructed using a proprietary database (Creditreform) that provides a solvency index for a large number of Czech firms. Several methods for the calibration and validation of a rating system are described and tested in practice. On the basis of a representative portfolio for Czech industries, systemic predictions of regulatory and economic capital are obtained and compared. The methodologies formulated by the latest Consultative Document of the NBCA (April 2003) and by the Credit Metrics and CreditRisk+ models are applied. The main contributions of this project can be briefly summarized as follows, (a) it shows in an applied manner that input data problems in credit risk modeling can be overcome, (b) it sheds light on regulatory issues that are gaining increasing relevance, and (c) it outlines the most important features of two credit risk models.

Suggested Citation

  • Narcisa Kadlcakova & Joerg Keplinger, 2004. "Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2004/06, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2004/06
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cnb.cz/export/sites/cnb/en/economic-research/.galleries/research_publications/cnb_wp/cnbwp62004.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    3. Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Til Schuermann & Yusuf Jafry, 2003. "Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    6. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
    7. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Geršl & Petr Jakubik & Dorota Kowalczyk & Steven Ongena & José-Luis Peydró, 2015. "Monetary Conditions and Banks’ Behaviour in the Czech Republic," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 407-445, July.
    2. Ivan Baboucek & Martin Jancar, 2005. "Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks to the Quality of the Aggregate Loan Portfolio," Working Papers 2005/01, Czech National Bank.
    3. Jiří Jakoubek, 2012. "Limits to the Price Formation: Possibilities and Implications of Setting a Common Interest Rates [Omezení tvorby transferových cen - možnosti a implikace nastavení obvyklé úrokové míry]," Český finanční a účetní časopis, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2012(4), pages 102-119.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Risk; Economic Capital; Exchange Rate Exposure; Rating System.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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