A Coupled Markov Chain Approach to Credit Risk Modeling
We propose a Markov chain model for credit rating changes. We do not use any distributional assumptions on the asset values of the rated companies but directly model the rating transitions process. The parameters of the model are estimated by a maximum likelihood approach using historical rating transitions and heuristic global optimization techniques. We benchmark the model against a GLMM model in the context of bond portfolio risk management. The proposed model yields stronger dependencies and higher risks than the GLMM model. As a result, the risk optimal portfolios are more conservative than the decisions resulting from the benchmark model.
|Date of creation:||Nov 2009|
|Date of revision:||Jan 2014|
|Publication status:||Published in Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36(3): 403-415. 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://arxiv.org/|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Frydman, Halina & Schuermann, Til, 2008. "Credit rating dynamics and Markov mixture models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1062-1075, June.
- Masaaki Kijima, 1998. "Monotonicities in a Markov Chain Model for Valuing Corporate Bonds Subject to Credit Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 229-247.
- Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000.
"Stability of rating transitions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
- Giesecke, Kay & Weber, Stefan, 2006. "Credit contagion and aggregate losses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 741-767, May.
- Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010.
"Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
- Shirley J. Huang & Jun Yu, 2009. "Bayesian Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models with Microstructure Noises," Finance Working Papers 23054, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997.
"A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
- Robert A. Jarrow & David Lando & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 18, pages 411-453 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
- Korolkiewicz, Malgorzata W. & Elliott, Robert J., 2008. "A hidden Markov model of credit quality," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3807-3819, December.
- Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
- Kaniovski, Y.M. & Pflug, G.Ch., 2007. "Risk assessment for credit portfolios: A coupled Markov chain model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2303-2323, August.
- Renault, Olivier & Scaillet, Olivier, 2004.
"On the way to recovery: A nonparametric bias free estimation of recovery rate densities,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 2915-2931, December.
- Olivier RENAULT & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "On the Way to Recovery: A Nonparametric Bias Free Estimation of Recovery Rate Densities," FAME Research Paper Series rp83, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
- Stefan Weber & Kay Giesecke, 2003. "Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 246, Society for Computational Economics.
- Michael B. Gordy, 1998.
"A comparative anatomy of credit risk models,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1998-47, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2006.
"A Simulation Estimator for Testing the Time Homogeneity of Credit Rating Transition,"
06-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Larson, C. Erik, 2007. "A simulation estimator for testing the time homogeneity of credit rating transitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 818-835, December.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
- Stefanescu, Catalina & Tunaru, Radu & Turnbull, Stuart, 2009. "The credit rating process and estimation of transition probabilities: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 216-234, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:0911.3802. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (arXiv administrators)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.