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Bayesian Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models with Microstructure Noises

  • Shirley J. Huang

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Jun Yu
Registered author(s):

In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion (DIC) which is straightforwardly obtained from the MCMC output. The method is implemented on the basic structural credit risk model with pure microstructure noises and some more general specifications using daily equity data from US and emerging markets. We find empirical evidence that microstructure noises are positively correlated with the firm values in emerging markets.

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Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Finance Working Papers with number 23054.

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Date of creation: Jan 2009
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Handle: RePEc:eab:financ:23054
Contact details of provider: Postal: JG Crawford Building #13, Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, Australian National University, ACT 0200
Web page: http://www.eaber.org

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