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Information Loss in Volatility Measurement with Flat Price Trading

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Abstract

A model of price determination is proposed that incorporates flat trading features into an efficient price process. The model involves the superposition of a Brownian semimartingale process for the efficient price and a Bernoulli process that determines the extent of flat price trading. A limit theory for the conventional realized volatility (RV) measure of integrated volatility is developed. The results show that RV is still consistent but has an inflated asymptotic variance that depends on the probability of flat trading. Estimated quarticity is similarly affected, so that both the feasible central limit theorem and the inferential framework suggested in Barndorff-Nielson and Shephard (2002) remain valid under flat price trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Information Loss in Volatility Measurement with Flat Price Trading," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1598, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1598
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2023. "Information loss in volatility measurement with flat price trading," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 2957-2999, June.
    2. Kolokolov, Aleksey & Livieri, Giulia & Pirino, Davide, 2020. "Statistical inferences for price staleness," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 32-81.
    3. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
    4. Ying Jiang & Shamim Ahmed & Xiaoquan Liu, 2017. "Volatility forecasting in the Chinese commodity futures market with intraday data," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1123-1173, May.
    5. Federico M. Bandi & Aleksey Kolokolov & Davide Pirino & Roberto Renòo, 2020. "Zeros," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3466-3479, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bernoulli process; Brownian semimartingale; Flat trading; Quarticity function; Realized volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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