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ANOVA for diffusions and It\^{o} processes

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  • Per Aslak Mykland
  • Lan Zhang

Abstract

It\^{o} processes are the most common form of continuous semimartingales, and include diffusion processes. This paper is concerned with the nonparametric regression relationship between two such It\^{o} processes. We are interested in the quadratic variation (integrated volatility) of the residual in this regression, over a unit of time (such as a day). A main conceptual finding is that this quadratic variation can be estimated almost as if the residual process were observed, the difference being that there is also a bias which is of the same asymptotic order as the mixed normal error term. The proposed methodology, ``ANOVA for diffusions and It\^{o} processes,'' can be used to measure the statistical quality of a parametric model and, nonparametrically, the appropriateness of a one-regressor model in general. On the other hand, it also helps quantify and characterize the trading (hedging) error in the case of financial applications.

Suggested Citation

  • Per Aslak Mykland & Lan Zhang, 2006. "ANOVA for diffusions and It\^{o} processes," Papers math/0611274, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:math/0611274
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
    4. Martin Jacobsen, 2001. "Discretely Observed Diffusions: Classes of Estimating Functions and Small Δ‐optimality," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 28(1), pages 123-149, March.
    5. Elerain, Ola & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil, 2001. "Likelihood Inference for Discretely Observed Nonlinear Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 959-993, July.
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