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Firm-specific credit risk estimation in the presence of regimes and noisy prices

Author

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  • Bégin, Jean-François
  • Boudreault, Mathieu
  • Gauthier, Geneviève

Abstract

Security prices are important inputs for estimating credit risk. Yet, to obtain an accurate firm-specific credit risk assessment, one needs a reliable model and a methodology that filters the elements unrelated to the firm’s fundamentals from market prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Bégin, Jean-François & Boudreault, Mathieu & Gauthier, Geneviève, 2017. "Firm-specific credit risk estimation in the presence of regimes and noisy prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 306-313.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:306-313
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2017.08.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2010. "Stock Options and Credit Default Swaps: A Joint Framework for Valuation and Estimation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 409-449, Fall.
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    3. Gurdip Bakshi & Dilip Madan & Frank Xiaoling Zhang, 2006. "Investigating the Role of Systematic and Firm-Specific Factors in Default Risk: Lessons from Empirically Evaluating Credit Risk Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(4), pages 1955-1988, July.
    4. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. Chun, Olfa Maalaoui & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1339-1364, December.
    7. Hitesh Doshi & Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2013. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps with Observable Covariates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 2049-2094.
    8. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
    9. Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
    10. Huang, Alex YiHou & Hu, Wen-Cheng, 2012. "Regime switching dynamics in credit default swaps: Evidence from smooth transition autoregressive model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(4), pages 1497-1508.
    11. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Fulop, Andras, 2009. "Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 288-296, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Sung Ik, 2023. "A comparative study of firm value models: Default risk of corporate bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit risk; Maximum likelihood estimation; Regime-switching; Filtering; Noisy prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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