IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

On the determinants of the implied default barrier

  • Dionne, Georges
  • Laajimi, Sadok

Many structural models specify the default barrier, but few have explored its empirical significance and determinants. The effect of liquidity shortage is not well measured, nor is the effect of strategic default well identified. We use the maximum likelihood (ML) approach to estimate the default barrier model and the Merton-KMV model using market values of equities in a sample of 762 public industrial firms. The estimated barrier is below leverage in our sample. The default probability from the two structural models provides similar in-sample fits, but the default barrier framework achieves better out-of-sample forecasts. Our analysis also focuses on the factors that influence the level of the implied default barrier when leverage is endogenous, and shows that endogenous leverage is not the only determinant of the default barrier as predicted by the standard structural credit model. The implied default threshold is positively related to financing costs, and negatively related to liquidity, asset volatility, and firm size. Three strategic default variables (liquidation costs, renegotiation frictions and equity holders’ bargaining power) increase the implied default barrier level. This evidence supports strategic default models.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539812000187
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 395-408

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:395-408
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Ulrich Hege & Pierre Mella-Barral, 2005. "Repeated Dilution of Diffusely Held Debt," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 737-786, May.
  2. Acharya, Viral V & Carpenter, Jennifer, 2002. "Corporate Bond Valuation and Hedging with Stochastic Interest Rates and Endogenous Bankruptcy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3328, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Asquith, Paul & Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1994. "Anatomy of Financial Distress: An Examination of Junk-Bond Issuers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 625-58, August.
  4. Betker, Brian L, 1995. "Management's Incentives, Equity's Bargaining Power, and Deviations from Absolute Priority in Chapter 11 Bankruptcies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 161-83, April.
  5. Galai, Dan & Raviv, Alon & Wiener, Zvi, 2007. "Liquidation triggers and the valuation of equity and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3604-3620, December.
  6. Pascal Francois, 2004. "Capital Structure and Asset Prices: Some Effects of Bankruptcy Procedures," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 387-412, April.
  7. Acharya, Viral V & Huang, Jing-Zhi & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Sundaram, Rangarajan K, 2002. "When Does Strategic Debt Service Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
  9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  10. In Joon Kim & Krishna Ramaswamy & Suresh Sundaresan, 1993. "Does Default Risk in Coupons Affect the Valuation of Corporate Bonds?: A Contingent Claims Model," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
  11. Jones, E Philip & Mason, Scott P & Rosenfeld, Eric, 1984. " Contingent Claims Analysis of Corporate Capital Structures: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 611-25, July.
  12. Jan Ericsson, 2005. "Estimating Structural Bond Pricing Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 707-735, March.
  13. Franks, Julian R. & Torous, Walter N., 1994. "A comparison of financial recontracting in distressed exchanges and chapter 11 reorganizations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 349-370, June.
  14. Dirk Hackbarth & Christopher A. Hennessy & Hayne E. Leland, 2007. "Can the Trade-off Theory Explain Debt Structure?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1389-1428, 2007 04.
  15. Anderson, Ronald W & Sundaresan, Suresh, 1996. "Design and Valuation of Debt Contracts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 37-68.
  16. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  17. Gertner, Robert & Scharfstein, David, 1991. " A Theory of Workouts and the Effects of Reorganization Law," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1189-1222, September.
  18. Oliver Hart & John Moore, 1998. "Default And Renegotiation: A Dynamic Model Of Debt," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-41, February.
  19. Houston, Joel & James, Christopher, 1996. " Bank Information Monopolies and the Mix of Private and Public Debt Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1863-89, December.
  20. Anderson, Ronald W. & Carverhill, Andrew, 2007. "Liquidity and Capital Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 6044, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Bourgeon, Jean-Marc & Dionne, Georges, 2013. "On debt service and renegotiation when debt-holders are more strategic," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 353-372.
  22. Fan, Hua & Sundaresan, Suresh M, 2000. "Debt Valuation, Renegotiation, and Optimal Dividend Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 1057-99.
  23. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
  24. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
  25. Mella-Barral, Pierre & Perraudin, William, 1997. " Strategic Debt Service," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 531-56, June.
  26. Ronn, Ehud I & Verma, Avinash K, 1986. " Pricing Risk-Adjusted Deposit Insurance: An Option-Based Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 871-95, September.
  27. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  28. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
  29. Johnson, Shane A., 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Corporate Debt Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 47-69, March.
  30. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
  31. Sergei A. Davydenko & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2007. "Strategic Actions and Credit Spreads: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2633-2671, December.
  32. Mella-Barral, Pierre, 1999. "The Dynamics of Default and Debt Reorganization," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 535-78.
  33. Hoi Ying Wong & Tsz Wang Choi, 2009. "Estimating default barriers from market information," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2), pages 187-196.
  34. Berglof, Erik & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 1994. "Short-Term versus Long-Term Interests: Capital Structure with Multiple Investors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(4), pages 1055-84, November.
  35. Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
  36. Denis, David J. & Mihov, Vassil T., 2003. "The choice among bank debt, non-bank private debt, and public debt: evidence from new corporate borrowings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 3-28, October.
  37. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:3:p:395-408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.