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Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

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  • Georges Dionne
  • Sadok Laajimi
  • Sofiane Mejri
  • Madalina Petrescu

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.

Suggested Citation

  • Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Cahiers de recherche 0613, CIRPEE.
  • Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Reisz, Alexander S. & Perlich, Claudia, 2007. "A market-based framework for bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 85-131, July.
    2. Hui Hu & Milind Sathye, 2015. "Predicting Financial Distress in the Hong Kong Growth Enterprises Market from the Perspective of Financial Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Maria Giuli & Dean Fantazzini & Mario Maggi, 2008. "A New Approach for Firm Value and Default Probability Estimation beyond Merton Models," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 161-180, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default risk; public firm; structural model; reduced form model; hybrid model; probit model; Toronto Stock Exchange; correlations between default probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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