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Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies

  • Georges Dionne
  • Sadok Laajimi
  • Sofiane Mejri
  • Madalina Petrescu

In this paper, we investigate the hybrid contingent claim approach with publicly traded Canadian companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Our goal is to assess how combining their continuous valuation by the market with the value given in their financial statements improves our ability to predict their probability of default. Our results indicate that the predicted structural probabilities of default (PDs from the structural model) contribute significantly to explaining default probabilities when PDs are included alongside the retained accounting variables. We also show that quarterly updates to the PDs add a large amount of dynamic information to explain the probabilities of default over the course of a year. This flexibility would not be possible with a reduced-form model. We also conducted a preliminary analysis of correlations between sructural probabilities of default for the firms in our database. Our results indicate that there are substantial correlations in the studied data.

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Paper provided by CIRPEE in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 0613.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:lvl:lacicr:0613
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  1. Georges Dionne & Geneviève Gauthier & Khemais Hammami & Mathieu Maurice & Jean-Guy Simonato, 2005. "Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0532, CIRPEE.
  2. Hayne E. Leland and Klaus Bjerre Toft., 1995. "Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-259, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Leland, Hayne E, 1994. " Corporate Debt Value, Bond Covenants, and Optimal Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1213-52, September.
  4. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
  5. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Edwardo S, 1978. "Corporate Income Taxes, Valuation, and the Problem of Optimal Capital Structure," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 51(1), pages 103-14, January.
  6. Brockman, Paul & Turtle, H. J., 2003. "A barrier option framework for corporate security valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 511-529, March.
  7. Jarrow, Robert A & Lando, David & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1997. "A Markov Model for the Term Structure of Credit Risk Spreads," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 481-523.
  8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  9. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  10. Maria Vassalou & Yuhang Xing, 2004. "Default Risk in Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 831-868, 04.
  11. Chunsheng Zhou, 1997. "A jump-diffusion approach to modeling credit risk and valuing defaultable securities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-15, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Jin-Chuan Duan & Andras Fulop, 2005. "Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  13. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  14. Briys, Eric & de Varenne, François, 1997. "Valuing Risky Fixed Rate Debt: An Extension," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(02), pages 239-248, June.
  15. Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2000. "A comparative analysis of current credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 59-117, January.
  16. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March.
  17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521626019 is not listed on IDEAS
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