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Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises

Author

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  • Jin-Chuan Duan

    () (School of Management, University of Toronto)

  • Andras Fulop

    () (School of Management, University of Toronto)

Abstract

The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for struc- tural credit risk models developed by Duan (1994) is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton (1974). We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm's asset volatility. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin-Chuan Duan & Andras Fulop, 2005. "Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0517, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:0517
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    File URL: http://econ.core.hu/doc/dp/dp/mtdp0517.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jarrow, Robert A. & Turnbull, Stuart M., 2000. "The intersection of market and credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 271-299, January.
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    3. Madhavan, Ananth & Richardson, Matthew & Roomans, Mark, 1997. "Why Do Security Prices Change? A Transaction-Level Analysis of NYSE Stocks," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 1035-1064.
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    5. Yacine Aït-Sahalia, 2005. "How Often to Sample a Continuous-Time Process in the Presence of Market Microstructure Noise," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 351-416.
    6. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of deposit insurance value with interest rate risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 109-132, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Cahiers de recherche 0613, CIRPEE.
    2. Abel Elizalde, 2006. "Credit Risk Models Ii: Structural Models," Working Papers wp2006_0606, CEMFI.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Particle filtering; maximum likelihood; option pricing; credit risk; simulation;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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