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A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies

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  • Tudela, Merxe

    (Bank of England)

  • Garry Young

Abstract

This paper shows how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of failure for a control group of surviving companies are also constructed. These are used in Probit-regressions to evaluate the information content of the Merton-based estimates relative to information available in company accounts. The paper shows that there is much useful information in the Merton-style estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 207, Royal Economic Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2003:207
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thiago Christiano Silva & Marcos Soares da Silva & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2015. "Liquidity Performance Evaluation of the Brazilian Interbank Market using a Network-Based Approach," Working Papers Series 401, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Dale F. Gray & Carlos J. García & Leonardo Luna & Jorge E. Restrepo, 2011. "Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models: Application to Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Rodrigo Alfaro (ed.), Financial Stability, Monetary Policy, and Central Banking, edition 1, volume 15, chapter 6, pages 159-197 Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Philipp Matros & Johannes Vilsmeier, 2013. "The Multivariate Option iPoD Framework - Assessing Systemic Financial Risk," Working Papers 143, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    4. Nystrom, Kaj & Skoglund, Jimmy, 2006. "A credit risk model for large dimensional portfolios with application to economic capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2163-2197, August.
    5. Petru Tunde Petra & Farkas Dalma - Zsuzsa & Furdek Balazs - Marton & Marton Noemi, Racz Timea Erzsebet, 2011. "Empirical Study Of The Probability Of Default In Case Of Romanian Companies Listed On Stock Exchange," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 515-523, July.
    6. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2009. "Cyprus; Financial Sector Assessment Program Update: Technical Note: Measuring Banking Stability in Cyprus," IMF Staff Country Reports 09/171, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Alexandros Benos & George Papanastasopoulos, 2005. "Extending the Merton Model: A Hybrid Approach to Assessing Credit Quality," Finance 0505020, EconWPA, revised 18 Nov 2005.
    9. Robert Kelly & Eoin Brien & Rebecca Stuart, 2015. "A long-run survival analysis of corporate liquidations in Ireland," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 671-683, March.
    10. Petr Jakubík, 2006. "Does Credit Risk Vary with Economic Cycles? The Case of Finland," Working Papers IES 2006/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2006.
    11. repec:eee:joecas:v:7:y:2010:i:2:p:77-103 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
    13. Georges Dionne & Sadok Laajimi & Sofiane Mejri & Madalina Petrescu, 2006. "Estimation of the Default Risk of Publicly Traded Canadian Companies," Cahiers de recherche 0613, CIRPEE.
    14. Mark J Manning, 2004. "Exploring the relationship between credit spreads and default probabilities," Bank of England working papers 225, Bank of England.
    15. Saldías, Martín, 2013. "Systemic risk analysis using forward-looking Distance-to-Default series," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 498-517.
    16. Sorge, Marco & Virolainen, Kimmo, 2006. "A comparative analysis of macro stress-testing methodologies with application to Finland," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 113-151, June.
    17. Münür Yayla & Alper Hekimoglu & Mahmut Kutlukaya, 2008. "Financial Stability of the Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 9-26.
    18. Daniel Oda, 2013. "Introducing Liquidity Risk in the Contingent-Claim Analysis for the Banks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 681, Central Bank of Chile.
    19. Maclachlan, Iain C, 2007. "An empirical study of corporate bond pricing with unobserved capital structure dynamics," MPRA Paper 28416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Virolainen, Kimmo, 2003. "Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model for Finland," Research Discussion Papers 18/2004, Bank of Finland.
    21. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda, 2010. "Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes," VNIVERSITAS ECONÓMICA 008291, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
    22. Felipe Zurita L., 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction for Chilean Companies," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 93-116, April.
    23. Tao Sun, 2011. "Identifying Vulnerabilities in Systemically-Important Financial Institutions in a Macro-Financial Linkages Framework," IMF Working Papers 11/111, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    25. Matros, Philipp & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2014. "The multivariate option iPoD framework: assessing systemic financial risk," Discussion Papers 20/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merton models; corporate failure; implied default probabilities;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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