Robust Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models
It is shown in this paper that the data augmentation technique undermines the theoretical underpinnings of the deviance information criterion (DIC), a widely used information criterion for Bayesian model comparison, although it facilitates parameter estimation for latent variable models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Data augmentation makes the likelihood function non-regular and hence invalidates the standard asymptotic arguments. A new information criterion, robust DIC (RDIC), is proposed for Bayesian comparison of latent variable models. RDIC is shown to be a good approximation to DIC without data augmentation. While the later quantity is difficult to compute, the expectation - maximization (EM) algorithm facilitates the computation of RDIC when the MCMC output is available. Moreover, RDIC is robust to nonlinear transformations of latent variables and distributional representations of model specification. The proposed approach is illustrated using several popular models in economics and finance.
|Date of creation:||Aug 2012|
|Publication status:||Published in SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 90 Stamford Road, Singapore 178903|
Phone: 65-6828 0832
Fax: 65-6828 0833
Web page: http://www.economics.smu.edu.sg/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005.
"Monetary Policy in Real Time,"
NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Luca Sala, "undated". "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10177, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Sala, Luca, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," CEPR Discussion Papers 4981, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/6401, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Zhou, Guofu, 1993. " Asset-Pricing Tests under Alternative Distributions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1927-1942, December.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012.
"Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
- M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar S. Prasad, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," NBER Working Papers 14292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ayhan Kose & Eswar S Prasad & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Global Business Cycles; Convergence or Decoupling?," IMF Working Papers 08/143, International Monetary Fund.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher M. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2008. "Global business cycles: convergence or decoupling?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,17, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Kose, M. Ayhan & Otrok, Christopher & Prasad, Eswar, 2008. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?," IZA Discussion Papers 3442, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "Incorporating Economic Objectives into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice under Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 959-986, August.
- Wang, Joanna J.J. & Chan, Jennifer S.K. & Choy, S.T. Boris, 2011. "Stochastic volatility models with leverage and heavy-tailed distributions: A Bayesian approach using scale mixtures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 852-862, January.
- Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392.
- Li, Yong & Yu, Jun, 2012. "Bayesian hypothesis testing in latent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 237-246.
- Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2011. "Bayesian Hypothesis Testing in Latent Variable Models," Working Papers 11-2011, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
- Christopher Otrok & Charles H. Whiteman, 1996. "Baynesian Leading Indicators: Measuring and Predicting Economic Conditions," Macroeconomics 9610002, EconWPA.
- Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
- Kim, Jae-Young, 1994. "Bayesian Asymptotic Theory in a Time Series Model with a Possible Nonstationary Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 764-773, August. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:30-2012. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (QL THor)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.