IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v222y2021i2p933-958.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian robust chi-squared test for testing simple hypotheses

Author

Listed:
  • Doğan, Osman
  • Taşpınar, Süleyman
  • Bera, Anil K.

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian chi-squared test based on an adjusted quadratic loss function for testing a simple null hypothesis. We show that the asymptotic null distribution of our suggested test is a central chi-squared distribution under some assumptions required for the Bayesian large sample theory. We refer to our test as the Bayesian robust chi-squared test, since it is robust to parametric misspecification in the alternative model. That is, the limiting null distribution of our test is a central chi-squared distribution irrespective of parametric misspecification in the alternative model. In addition to being robust to parametric misspecification, our test also shares properties of the test suggested by Li et al. (2015) based on a quadratic loss function. We provide four examples to illustrate the implementation of our suggested Bayesian test statistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman & Bera, Anil K., 2021. "A Bayesian robust chi-squared test for testing simple hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 222(2), pages 933-958.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:2:p:933-958
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.046
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407620303018
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.07.046?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bera, Anil K. & Sosa-Escudero, Walter & Yoon, Mann, 2001. "Tests for the error component model in the presence of local misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 1-23, March.
    2. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    3. Bera, Anil K. & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Sosa-Escudero, Walter, 2010. "General Specification Testing With Locally Misspecified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(6), pages 1838-1845, December.
    4. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Kengo Kato, 2013. "Uniform post selection inference for LAD regression and other z-estimation problems," CeMMAP working papers CWP74/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    5. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Post-Selection and Post-Regularization Inference in Linear Models with Many Controls and Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 486-490, May.
    6. Ghosh, Malay, 2006. "Bayesian Nonparametrics via Neural Networks. Herbert K. H. Lee," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1313-1313, September.
    7. Bera, Anil K. & Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman & Leiluo, Yufan, 2019. "Robust LM tests for spatial dynamic panel data models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 47-66.
    8. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1991. "On the application of robust, regression- based diagnostics to models of conditional means and conditional variances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 5-46, January.
    9. Florax, Raymond J. G. M. & Folmer, Hendrik & Rey, Sergio J., 2003. "Specification searches in spatial econometrics: the relevance of Hendry's methodology," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 557-579, September.
    10. D. Oakes, 1999. "Direct calculation of the information matrix via the EM," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(2), pages 479-482, April.
    11. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, January.
    12. Li, Yong & Liu, Xiao-Bin & Yu, Jun, 2015. "A Bayesian chi-squared test for hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(1), pages 54-69.
    13. Chernozhukov, Victor & Hong, Han, 2003. "An MCMC approach to classical estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 293-346, August.
    14. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2017. "The Stochastic Volatility in Mean Model With Time-Varying Parameters: An Application to Inflation Modeling," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 17-28, January.
    15. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    16. Baltagi, Badi H. & Li, Qi, 1995. "Testing AR(1) against MA(1) disturbances in an error component model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 133-151, July.
    17. Siem Jan Koopman & Eugenie Hol Uspensky, 2002. "The stochastic volatility in mean model: empirical evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 667-689, December.
    18. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1987. "Implicit Alternatives and the Local Power of Test Statistics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1305-1329, November.
    19. Anselin, Luc & Bera, Anil K. & Florax, Raymond & Yoon, Mann J., 1996. "Simple diagnostic tests for spatial dependence," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-104, February.
    20. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Valid Post-Selection and Post-Regularization Inference: An Elementary, General Approach," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 649-688, August.
    21. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    22. Badi H. Baltagi & Dong Li, 2001. "LM Tests for Functional Form and Spatial Error Correlation," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 194-225, April.
    23. Li, Yong & Zeng, Tao & Yu, Jun, 2014. "A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 602-612.
    24. Yu, Jun, 2005. "On leverage in a stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 165-178, August.
    25. Omori, Yasuhiro & Chib, Siddhartha & Shephard, Neil & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2007. "Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient likelihood inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 425-449, October.
    26. Kim, Jae-Young, 1994. "Bayesian Asymptotic Theory in a Time Series Model with a Possible Nonstationary Process," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 764-773, August.
    27. Joshua C. C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "On the Observed-Data Deviance Information Criterion for Volatility Modeling," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(4), pages 772-802.
    28. Bera, Anil K. & Yoon, Mann J., 1993. "Specification Testing with Locally Misspecified Alternatives," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 649-658, August.
    29. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun, 2012. "Bayesian hypothesis testing in latent variable models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 237-246.
    30. Chan, Joshua C.C., 2013. "Moving average stochastic volatility models with application to inflation forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 162-172.
    31. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1989. "Asymptotic relative efficiency of the classical test statistics under misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 351-369, November.
    32. L. G. Godfrey & M. R. Veal, 2000. "Alternative approaches to testing by variable addition," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 241-261.
    33. José M. Bernardo & Raúl Rueda, 2002. "Bayesian Hypothesis Testing: a Reference Approach," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 70(3), pages 351-372, December.
    34. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
    35. Berg, Andreas & Meyer, Renate & Yu, Jun, 2004. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 107-120, January.
    36. Cheng, Tingting & Gao, Jiti & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2018. "A frequentist approach to Bayesian asymptotics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 359-378.
    37. Jae-Young Kim, 1998. "Large Sample Properties of Posterior Densities, Bayesian Information Criterion and the Likelihood Principle in Nonstationary Time Series Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 359-380, March.
    38. Badi Baltagi & Seuck Heun Song & Byoung Cheol Jung, 2002. "Simple Lm Tests For The Unbalanced Nested Error Component Regression Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 167-187.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hani Brdesee, 2021. "A Divergent View of the Impact of Digital Transformation on Academic Organizational and Spending Efficiency: A Review and Analytical Study on a University E-Service," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2020. "Deviance information criterion for latent variable models and misspecified models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 450-493.
    2. Bera Anil K. & Doğan Osman & Bilias Yannis & Yoon Mann J. & Taşpınar Süleyman, 2020. "Adjustments of Rao’s Score Test for Distributional and Local Parametric Misspecifications," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Nonejad, Nima, 2017. "Parameter instability, stochastic volatility and estimation based on simulated likelihood: Evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 388-408.
    4. Li, Yong & Zeng, Tao & Yu, Jun, 2014. "A new approach to Bayesian hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 602-612.
    5. Liu, Xiaobin & Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2022. "Posterior-based Wald-type statistics for hypothesis testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 83-113.
    6. Bera, Anil K. & Doğan, Osman & Taşpınar, Süleyman, 2018. "Simple tests for endogeneity of spatial weights matrices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 130-142.
    7. Philipp Otto & Osman Dou{g}an & Suleyman Tac{s}p{i}nar & Wolfgang Schmid & Anil K. Bera, 2023. "Spatial and Spatiotemporal Volatility Models: A Review," Papers 2308.13061, arXiv.org.
    8. Taşpınar, Süleyman & Doğan, Osman & Bera, Anil K., 2017. "GMM gradient tests for spatial dynamic panel data models," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 65-88.
    9. Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2019. "An Improved Bayesian Unit Root Test in Stochastic Volatility Models," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 20(1), pages 103-122, May.
    10. Abanto-Valle, C.A. & Bandyopadhyay, D. & Lachos, V.H. & Enriquez, I., 2010. "Robust Bayesian analysis of heavy-tailed stochastic volatility models using scale mixtures of normal distributions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 2883-2898, December.
    11. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhuang, Xin-Tian, 2018. "Modeling volatility dynamics using non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model based on band matrix routine," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 193-201.
    12. Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Anil K. Bera, 2021. "Bayesian estimation of stochastic tail index from high-frequency financial data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2685-2711, November.
    13. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2014. "Issues in Comparing Stochastic Volatility Models Using the Deviance Information Criterion," CAMA Working Papers 2014-51, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Jieun Lee, 2022. "Testing Endogeneity of Spatial Weights Matrices in Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models," Papers 2209.05563, arXiv.org.
    15. Leopoldo Catania & Nima Nonejad, 2016. "Density Forecasts and the Leverage Effect: Some Evidence from Observation and Parameter-Driven Volatility Models," Papers 1605.00230, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2016.
    16. Victor Chernozhukov & Juan Carlos Escanciano & Hidehiko Ichimura & Whitney K. Newey & James M. Robins, 2022. "Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1501-1535, July.
    17. Taspinar, Suleyman & Dogan, Osman & Bera, Anil K., 2017. "GMM Gradient Tests for Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models," MPRA Paper 82830, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Anil K. Bera & Osman Doğan & Süleyman Taşpınar & Monalisa Sen, 2020. "Specification tests for spatial panel data models," Journal of Spatial Econometrics, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-39, December.
    19. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Trinh, Kelly, 2021. "Returns, volatility and the cryptocurrency bubble of 2017–18," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    20. Li, Haiqi & Fan, Rui & Park, Sung Y., 2018. "Generalized empirical likelihood specification test robust to local misspecification," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 149-153.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decision theory; Chi-squared test; LM test; Robust LM test; Bayesian inference; MCMC;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:222:y:2021:i:2:p:933-958. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.