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Artificial intelligence and urban social risk in China: A spatial analysis

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  • Gao, Zhiyuan
  • Zhao, Ying
  • Li, Lianqing
  • Hao, Yu

Abstract

In recent years, China's youth unemployment rate has remained high (e.g., 18.8 % in September 2024), raising concerns about social stability. Meanwhile, the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in China has deepened. AI not only influences the development of the technology sector but also poses technological challenges—such as algorithmic black boxes and privacy breaches—and social issues, including unemployment risks and social injustice. These challenges span politics, economics, society, and ethics, contributing to social risks such as public security issues, labor disputes, and sudden collective incidents. Exploring the relationship between AI and social risks is of great practical significance for China, which is undergoing a transformative period marked by the end of its demographic dividend, slowing economic growth, and intensifying societal contradictions. Given the spatial characteristics of social risks, this study analyzes data from 285 cities between 2010 and 2019 by constructing a Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) and a spatial mediation effect model to investigate the impact of AI on social risks and its spatial diffusion effects. The findings indicate that AI exacerbates social risks both locally and in neighboring regions, with the income gap serving as a significant mediating factor in this relationship. The study also reveals heterogeneity in the effects of AI on urban social risks across cities of different sizes and regional contexts, highlighting the notable spatial diffusion effects of AI. To foster positive interactions between technology and society, it is crucial to recognize the influence of AI on social risks, reduce income disparities, and place particular emphasis on small and medium-sized cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Zhiyuan & Zhao, Ying & Li, Lianqing & Hao, Yu, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and urban social risk in China: A spatial analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:219:y:2025:i:c:s0040162525002616
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2025.124230
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