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Post-selection and post-regularization inference in linear models with many controls and instruments

Author

Listed:
  • Victor Chernozhukov

    () (Institute for Fiscal Studies and MIT)

  • Christian Hansen

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies and Chicago GSB)

  • Martin Spindler

    (Institute for Fiscal Studies)

Abstract

In this note, we offer an approach to estimating structural parameters in the presence of many instruments and controls based on methods for estimating sparse high-dimensional models. We use these high-dimensional methods to select both which instruments and which control variables to use. The approach we take extends Belloni et al. (2012), which covers selection of instruments for IV models with a small number of controls, and extends Belloni, Chernozhukov and Hansen (2014), which covers selection of controls in models where the variable of interest is exogenous conditional on observables, to accommodate both a large number of controls and a large number of instruments. We illustrate the approach with a simulation and an empirical example. Technical supporting material is available in a supplementary appendix here.

Suggested Citation

  • Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Post-selection and post-regularization inference in linear models with many controls and instruments," CeMMAP working papers CWP02/15, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ifs:cemmap:02/15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Gautier & Alexandre Tsybakov, 2011. "High-Dimensional Instrumental Variables Regression and Confidence Sets," Working Papers 2011-13, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Damian Kozbur, 2016. "Inference in High-Dimensional Panel Models With an Application to Gun Control," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 590-605, October.
    3. Zhu Liu, 2015. "???????," Working Paper 269181, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    4. Carrasco, Marine, 2012. "A regularization approach to the many instruments problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(2), pages 383-398.
    5. Leeb, Hannes & P tscher, Benedikt M., 2008. "Can One Estimate The Unconditional Distribution Of Post-Model-Selection Estimators?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(02), pages 338-376, April.
    6. Chamberlain, Gary, 1987. "Asymptotic efficiency in estimation with conditional moment restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 305-334, March.
    7. Gary Chamberlain & Guido Imbens, 2004. "Random Effects Estimators with many Instrumental Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 295-306, January.
    8. Hansen, Christian & Kozbur, Damian, 2014. "Instrumental variables estimation with many weak instruments using regularized JIVE," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(2), pages 290-308.
    9. Okui, Ryo, 2011. "Instrumental variable estimation in the presence of many moment conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 165(1), pages 70-86.
    10. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Post-Selection and Post-Regularization Inference in Linear Models with Many Controls and Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 486-490, May.
    11. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    12. repec:eme:aecozz:s0731-905320140000034020 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. A. Belloni & D. Chen & V. Chernozhukov & C. Hansen, 2012. "Sparse Models and Methods for Optimal Instruments With an Application to Eminent Domain," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2369-2429, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2018. "Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 21(1), pages 1-68, February.
    2. Steven Shuye Wang & Kuan Xu & Hao Zhang, 2019. "A Microstructure Study of Circuit Breakers in the Chinese Stock Markets," Working Papers daleconwp2019-02, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    3. Frank Windmeijer & Helmut Farbmacher & Neil Davies & George Davey Smith, 2016. "On the Use of the Lasso for Instrumental Variables Estimation with Some Invalid Instruments," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 16/674, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 08 Aug 2017.
    4. Seojeong Lee & Youngki Shin, 2018. "Optimal Estimation with Complete Subsets of Instruments," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-15, McMaster University.
    5. Ruf, Daniel, 2017. "Agglomeration Effects and Liquidity Gradients in Local Rental Housing Markets," Working Papers on Finance 1702, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Susan Athey & Guido Imbens, 2016. "The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments," Papers 1607.00698, arXiv.org.
    7. Alexandre Belloni & Victor Chernozhukov & Ivan Fernandez-Val & Christian Hansen, 2013. "Program evaluation with high-dimensional data," CeMMAP working papers CWP77/13, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    8. Alexandre Belloni & Mingli Chen & Victor Chernozhukov, 2016. "Quantile Graphical Models: Prediction and Conditional Independence with Applications to Systemic Risk," Papers 1607.00286, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    9. repec:eee:econom:v:207:y:2018:i:1:p:175-187 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Krüger, Jens J. & Rhiel, Mathias, 2016. "Determinants of ICT infrastructure: A cross-country statistical analysis," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 228, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    11. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney K. Newey, 2016. "Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters," CeMMAP working papers CWP49/16, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. De Luca, Giuseppe & Magnus, Jan R. & Peracchi, Franco, 2018. "Weighted-average least squares estimation of generalized linear models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 1-17.
    13. repec:wly:emetrp:v:85:y:2017:i::p:233-298 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Victor Chernozhukov & Denis Chetverikov & Mert Demirer & Esther Duflo & Christian Hansen & Whitney Newey & James Robins, 2016. "Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Treatment and Causal Parameters," Papers 1608.00060, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2017.
    15. Cocker Liu & Adam Nowak & Patrick Smith, 2017. "Some Remarks on Real Estate Pricing," Working Papers 17-20, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    16. Sander Gerritsen & Mark Kattenberg & Sonny Kuijpers, 2019. "The impact of age at arrival on education and mental health," CPB Discussion Paper 389, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    17. A. Belloni & V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández‐Val & C. Hansen, 2017. "Program Evaluation and Causal Inference With High‐Dimensional Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 85, pages 233-298, January.
    18. Ahrens, Achim & Hansen, Christian B. & Schaffer, Mark E, 2019. "Iassopack: Model Selection and Prediction with Regularized Regression in Stata," IZA Discussion Papers 12081, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. Guber, Raphael, 2018. "Instrument Validity Tests with Causal Trees: With an Application to the Same-sex Instrument," MEA discussion paper series 201805, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    20. Christoph Breunig & Enno Mammen & Anna Simoni, 2018. "Ill-posed Estimation in High-Dimensional Models with Instrumental Variables," Papers 1806.00666, arXiv.org.
    21. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhentao Shi, 2019. "Boosting the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2192, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    22. Victor Chernozhukov & Christian Hansen & Martin Spindler, 2015. "Post-Selection and Post-Regularization Inference in Linear Models with Many Controls and Instruments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 486-490, May.
    23. Seojeong Lee & Youngki Shin, 2018. "Complete Subset Averaging with Many Instruments," Papers 1811.08083, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2019.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

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