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Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing VAR Models

Author

Listed:
  • Tao Zeng

    (Singapore Management University)

  • Yong Li

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Jun Yu

    () (Singapore Management University, School of Economics)

Abstract

Vector Autoregression (VAR) has been a standard empirical tool used in macroeconomics and finance. In this paper we discuss how to compare alternative VAR models after they are estimated by Bayesian MCMC methods. In particular we apply a robust version of deviance information criterion (RDIC) recently developed in Li et al. (2014b) to determine the best candidate model. RDIC is a better information criterion than the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC) when latent variables are involved in candidate models. Empirical analysis using US data shows that the optimal model selected by RDIC can be different from that by DIC.

Suggested Citation

  • Tao Zeng & Yong Li & Jun Yu, 2014. "Deviance Information Criterion for Comparing VAR Models," Working Papers 01-2014, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:siu:wpaper:01-2014
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayes factor; DIC; VAR models; Markov Chain Monte Carlo.;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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