IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/aaea04/20136.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Credit Score Migration Analysis Of Farm Businesses: Conditioning On Business Cycles And Migration Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Phillips, Jill
  • Katchova, Ani L.

Abstract

This study examines credit score migration rates of farm businesses. We test whether migration probabilities differ across business cycles. Our results suggest that agricultural credit ratings are more likely to improve during expansions and deteriorate during recessions. We also test whether agricultural credit ratings depend on the previous period migration trends. Our results show that credit score ratings exhibit trend reversal where upgrades (downgrades) are more likely to be followed by downgrades (upgrades).

Suggested Citation

  • Phillips, Jill & Katchova, Ani L., 2004. "Credit Score Migration Analysis Of Farm Businesses: Conditioning On Business Cycles And Migration Trends," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20136, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20136
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.20136
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/20136/files/sp04ph01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.20136?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katchova, Ani L. & Barry, Peter J., 2003. "Credit Risk Models: An Application to Agricultural Lending," 2003 Regional Committee NCT-194, October 6-7, 2003; Kansas City, Missouri 132519, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    2. Yusuf Jafry & Til Schuermann, 2003. "Metrics for Comparing Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-09, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    3. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
    4. Til Schuermann & Yusuf Jafry, 2003. "Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    5. Bruce Bjornson, 1995. "The Impacts of Business Cycles on Returns to Farmland Investments," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 77(3), pages 566-577.
    6. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    7. Escalante, Cesar L. & Park, Timothy A. & Barry, Peter J. & Demir, Ebru, 2002. "Determinants Of Farm Credit Migration Rates," 2002 Regional Committee NC-221, October 7-8, 2002, Denver, Colorado 132368, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    8. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Katchova, Ani L. & Nam, Sangjeong, 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis Focused on Farm Business Characteristics and Business Cycles," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19451, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    2. Rusiana, Hofner & Brewer, Brady & Escalante, Cesar & Dodson, Charles, 2016. "Transition Probability Approach in the Evaluation of Relative Financial Strength and Endurance of Farm Service Borrowers under Recessionary Conditions," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229813, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    3. Behrens, Andrew & Pederson, Glenn D., 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Patterns of Agricultural Loans," 2005 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 3-4, 2005, Minneapolis, Minnesota 132739, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    4. Gunderson, Michael A. & Gloy, Brent A. & LaDue, Eddy L., 2005. "Pricing Agricultural Loans to Account for Long-Term Default Risk," 2005 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 3-4, 2005, Minneapolis, Minnesota 132750, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    5. Dixon, Bruce L. & Ahrendsen, Bruce L. & Landerito, Aiko O. & Hamm, Sandra J. & Danforth, Diana M., 2010. "Determinants of FSA Direct Loan Borrowers' Financial Improvement and Loan Servicing Actions," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 28(2), pages 1-19.
    6. Rusiana, Hofner D. & Escalante, Cesar L., 2015. "The Effects of Business Maturity, Experience and Size on the Farms’ Economic Vitality: A Credit Migration Analysis of Farm Service Agency Borrowers," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205282, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Hofner D. Rusiana & Cesar L. Escalante & Brady E. Brewer, 2024. "Financial Resilience of Young and Beginning Farmers under Recession: A Transition Probability Approach," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 14(3), pages 1-5.
    8. Pederson, Glenn D. & Chu, Yu-Szu & Richardson, D. Wynn, 2011. "Community Bank Assessment of Agricultural Portfolio Risk Exposure: The Literature and the Methods in Use," Staff Papers 107483, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    9. Durguner, Seda & Barry, Peter J. & Katchova, Ani L., 2006. "Credit Scoring Models: A Comparison between Crop and Livestock Farms," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21431, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narcisa Kadlcakova & Joerg Keplinger, 2004. "Credit Risk and Bank Lending in the Czech Republic," Working Papers 2004/06, Czech National Bank.
    2. Zhang, Tianwei & Katchova, Ani L., 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis of Illinois Farm Business: Possible Impacts of Farm Business Cycle," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19292, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
    4. Katchova, Ani L. & Nam, Sangjeong, 2005. "Credit Risk Migration Analysis Focused on Farm Business Characteristics and Business Cycles," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19451, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    5. Til Schuermann & Yusuf Jafry, 2003. "Measurement and Estimation of Credit Migration Matrices," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Schechtman, Ricardo, 2013. "Default matrices: A complete measurement of banks’ consumer credit delinquency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 460-474.
    7. Trueck, Stefan & Rachev, Svetlozar T., 2008. "Rating Based Modeling of Credit Risk," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123736833.
    8. Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
    9. Figlewski, Stephen & Frydman, Halina & Liang, Weijian, 2012. "Modeling the effect of macroeconomic factors on corporate default and credit rating transitions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 87-105.
    10. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    11. Myriam Ben Ayed & Adel Karaa & Jean‐Luc Prigent, 2018. "Duration Models For Credit Rating Migration: Evidence From The Financial Crisis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1870-1886, July.
    12. Jones, Stewart & Johnstone, David & Wilson, Roy, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-85.
    13. Johannes Hörner & Nicolas S Lambert, 2021. "Motivational Ratings [Toward the Next Generation of Recommender Systems: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art and Possible Extensions]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1892-1935.
    14. Jeffrey R. Stokes, 2023. "A nonlinear inversion procedure for modeling the effects of economic factors on credit risk migration," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 855-878, October.
    15. Anisa Caja & Frédéric Planchet, 2014. "Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(1), pages 1-15, March.
    16. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
    17. Areski Cousin & Mohamed Reda Kheliouen, 2016. "A comparative study on the estimation of factor migration models," Working Papers halshs-01351926, HAL.
    18. Areski Cousin & Jérôme Lelong & Tom Picard, 2023. "Rating transitions forecasting: a filtering approach," Post-Print hal-03347521, HAL.
    19. Xing, Haipeng & Sun, Ning & Chen, Ying, 2012. "Credit rating dynamics in the presence of unknown structural breaks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 78-89.
    20. Smith, Brent C, 2011. "Stability in consumer credit scores: Level and direction of FICO score drift as a precursor to mortgage default and prepayment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 285-298.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural Finance;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea04:20136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aaeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.