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The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market

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  • Drago, Danilo
  • Gallo, Raffaele

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market. Through the event study technique, we demonstrate that downgrades and upgrades considerably affect financial markets. The relevance of the impact is due to the introduction of “new” information after a rating change announcement (information discovery effect) and to the role of rating in the current financial regulation (certification effect). Conversely, the CDS market does not seem to react significantly to rating warning (outlook and review) announcements. Furthermore, we find evidence of a spillover effect only after a downgrade announcement. Our results show that the size of the spillover effect is influenced by economic and financial conditions of analyzed countries and that international bank flows between EMU Members represent an important transmission channel of the spillover effect.

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  • Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2016. "The impact and the spillover effect of a sovereign rating announcement on the euro area CDS market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 264-286.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:67:y:2016:i:c:p:264-286
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2016.06.004
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    2. María Cantero Sáiz & Sergio Sanfilippo Azofra & Begoña Torre Olmo, 2019. "The single supervision mechanism and contagion between bank and sovereign risk," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 67-106, February.
    3. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on European syndicated loan spreads: The role of the rating-based regulation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PA), pages 213-231.
    4. Hasan, Iftekhar & Kim, Suk-Joong & Politsidis, Panagiotis N. & Wu, Eliza, 2021. "Loan syndication under Basel II: How do firm credit ratings affect the cost of credit?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2021. "It's not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," CFS Working Paper Series 652, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    6. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2021. "Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 643-663.
    7. Danilo Drago & Concetta Carnevale & Raffaele Gallo, 2019. "Do corporate social responsibility ratings affect credit default swap spreads?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 644-652, May.
    8. David Cronin & Peter Dunne & Kieran McQuinn, 2019. "Have Irish Sovereign Bonds Decoupled from the Euro Area Periphery, and Why?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(3), pages 529-556.
    9. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    10. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    11. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2017. "The impact of sovereign rating changes on the activity of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 99-112.
    12. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    13. Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Stavros E. Arvanitis & Dimitris M. Terzakis, 2017. "The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3782-3796, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit ratings; Credit default swaps; Event study; Spillover effect; Bank flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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