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Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?

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  • Kraeussl, Roman

Abstract

The experience in the period during and after the Asian crisis of 1997-98 has provoked an extensive debate about the credit rating agencies' evaluation of sovereign risk in emerging markets lending. This study analyzes the role of credit rating agencies in international financial markets, particularly whether sovereign credit ratings have an impact on the financial stability in emerging market economies. The event study and panel regression results indicate that credit rating agencies have substantial influence on the size and volatility of emerging markets lending. The empirical results are significantly stronger in the case of government's downgrades and negative imminent sovereign credit rating actions such as credit watches and rating outlooks than positive adjustments by the credit rating agencies while by the market participants' anticipated sovereign credit rating changes have a smaller impact on financial markets in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraeussl, Roman, 2003. "Do Credit Rating Agencies Add to the Dynamics of Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200318
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    Cited by:

    1. Rosati, Nicoletta & Bellia, Mario & Matos, Pedro Verga & Oliveira, Vasco, 2020. "Ratings matter: Announcements in times of crisis and the dynamics of stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Yilmaz Onur Ari, 2020. "A Comparison of Romanian Economy’s Macro Indicators with Other Countries That Have the Same Credit Score," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 8(1), pages 77-87, May.
    3. Baum, Christopher F. & Schäfer, Dorothea & Stephan, Andreas, 2016. "Credit rating agency downgrades and the Eurozone sovereign debt crises," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 117-131.
    4. Afonso, António & Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2014. "Sovereign credit ratings, market volatility, and financial gains," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 20-33.
    5. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide & Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 606-638.
    6. Donato Masciandaro, 2013. "Sovereign debt: financial market over-reliance on credit rating agencies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 72, pages 50-62, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    8. Rachel Christopher & Suk-Joong Kim & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Do Sovereign Credit Ratings Influence Regional Stock and Bond Market Interdependencies in Emerging Countries?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 15, pages 517-546, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Luitel, Prabesh & Vanpée, Rosanne & De Moor, Lieven, 2016. "Pernicious effects: How the credit rating agencies disadvantage emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 286-298.
    10. Afik, Zvika & Feinstein, Itai & Galil, Koresh, 2014. "The (un)informative value of credit rating announcements in small markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 66-80.
    11. Iannotta, Giuliano & Nocera, Giacomo & Resti, Andrea, 2013. "Do investors care about credit ratings? An analysis through the cycle," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 545-555.
    12. Christopher F. Baum & Margarita Karpava & Dorothea Schäfer & Andreas Stephan, 2013. "Credit Rating Agency Announcements and the Eurozone Sovereign Debt Crisis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1333, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Ferri, Giovanni & Lacitignola, Punziana & Lee, Jeong Yeon, 2013. "Foreign ownership and the credibility of national rating agencies: Evidence from Korea," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 762-776.
    14. Agiakloglou, Christos & Deligiannakis, Emmanouil, 2020. "Sovereign risk evaluation for European Union countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    15. Fahad Bashir & Omar Masood & Abdullah Imran Sahi, 2017. "Sovereign Credit Rating Changes and Its Impact on Financial Markets of Europe during Debt Crisis Period in Greece and Ireland," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 7(4), pages 146-159, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Risk; Credit Ratings; Financial Crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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