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Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?

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  • Kraeussl, Roman

Abstract

Credit rating changes for long-term foreign currency debt may act as a wake-up call with up-grades and downgrades in one country affecting other financial markets within and across national borders. Such a potential (contagious) rating effect is likely to be stronger in emerg-ing market economies, where institutional investors' problems of asymmetric information are more present. This empirical study complements earlier research by explicitly examining cross-security and cross-country contagious rating effects of credit rating agencies' sovereign risk assessments. In particular, the specific impact of sovereign rating changes during the fi-nancial turmoil in emerging markets in the latter half of the 1990s has been examined. The results indicate that sovereign rating changes in a ground-zero country have a (statistically) significant impact on the financial markets of other emerging market economies although the spillover effects tend to be regional.

Suggested Citation

  • Kraeussl, Roman, 2003. "Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:200322
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    1. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2022. "Sovereign Credit Ratings Analysis Using the Logistic Regression Model," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Kocsis, Zalán & Mosolygó, Zsuzsa, 2006. "A devizakötvény-felárak és a hitelminősítések összefüggése - keresztmetszeti elemzés. A cross-section analysis [The relationship of international bond spreads and sovereign credit ratings]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 769-798.
    3. Saurav Roychoudhury & Robert A. Lawson, 2010. "Economic freedom and sovereign credit ratings and default risk," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 149-162, June.
    4. Roman Kraeussl, "undated". "A Critique on the Proposed Use of External Sovereign Credit Ratings in Basel II," Working Papers 0315, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    5. Noha Emara & Ayah El Said, 2021. "Sovereign ratings, foreign direct investment and contagion in emerging markets: Does being a BRICS country matter?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5217-5234, October.
    6. Emara, Noha & El Said, Aya, 2019. "Sovereign Ratings, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Contagion: The Case of Emerging Markets," MPRA Paper 94504, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Oliver Takawira & John W. Muteba Mwamba, 2020. "Determinants of Sovereign Credit Ratings: An Application of the Naïve Bayes Classifier," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(4), pages 279-299.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Risk; Credit Ratings; Financial Contagion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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