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Do Changes in Sovereign Credit Ratings Contribute to Financial Contagion in Emerging Market Crises?

  • Roman Kraeussl

    (Center for Financial Studies, Frankfurt am Main, Germany)

Credit rating changes for long-term foreign cur¬rency debt may act as a wake-up call with upgrades and downgrades in one country af¬fecting other financial markets within and across national borders. Such a potential (contagious) rating effect is likely to be stronger in emerging market economies, where institutional investors’ problems of asymmetric information are more present. This empirical study complements earlier research by explicitly examining cross-security and cross-country contagious rating effects of credit rating agencies’ sovereign risk assessments. In particular, the specific impact of sovereign rating changes during the financial turmoil in emerging markets in the latter half of the 1990s has been examined. The results indicate that sovereign rating changes in a ground-zero country have a (statistically) significant impact on the financial markets of other emerging market economies although the spillover effects tend to be regional.

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Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0314.

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Length: 38 pages
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Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0314
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  1. Gertler, Mark & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1990. "North-South lending and endogenous domestic capital market inefficiencies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 245-266, October.
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 2000. "Interest Rates, Contagion and Capital Controls," NBER Working Papers 7801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  4. Jong-Wha Lee & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch in Korea; Evidence From Firm-Level Data," IMF Working Papers 00/25, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 1998. "Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 35-57, October.
  6. Jeanne, Olivier & Masson, Paul R, 1998. "Currency Crises, Sunspots and Markov-Switching Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 1990, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Reisen, Helmut & von Maltzan, Julia, 1999. "Boom and Bust and Sovereign Ratings," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 273-93, July.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2000. "When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 6982, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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