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The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil

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  • Reinhart, Carmen
  • Kaminsky, Graciela

Abstract

This paper studies how financial turbulence in emerging market countries can spread across borders. We construct indices of “financial globalization” and evaluate the repercussions of turmoil in three emerging markets that experienced financial crises in the late 1990s: Brazil, Russia, and Thailand. Our findings indicate that financial turbulence in these countries only spreads globally when they affect asset markets in one or more of the world’s financial centers. Otherwise, spillovers are confined to countries in the same region. Also, episodes of worldwide globalization of turmoil are mostly episodes of synchronized crashes while regional turbulence include both joint crashes and rallies.

Suggested Citation

  • Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14100
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14100/1/MPRA_paper_14100.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1993. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 40(1), pages 108-151, March.
    5. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lyons, Richard K. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2004. "Managers, investors, and crises: mutual fund strategies in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 113-134, October.
    6. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 0035, European Central Bank.
    7. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2001. "Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis," NBER Chapters,in: Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, NBER-EASE Volume 10, pages 73-99 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
    9. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters,in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Mendoza, Enrique G., 2000. "Rational contagion and the globalization of securities markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 79-113, June.
    12. Longin, Francois M, 1996. "The Asymptotic Distribution of Extreme Stock Market Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(3), pages 383-408, July.
    13. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 232-266.
    14. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial crises contagion stock prices exchange rate crashes turbulence interest rate spreads default;

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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