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Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals

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  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls
  • Marçal, Emerson Fernandes
  • Martin, Diógenes Manoel Leiva
  • Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro

Abstract

This article investigates the existence of contagion between countries on the basis of an analysis of returns for stock indices over the period 1994-2003. The economic methodology used is that of multivariate GARCH family volatility models, particularly the DCC models in the form proposed by Engle and Sheppard (2001). The returns were duly corrected for a series of country-specific fundamentals. The relevance of this procedure is highlighted in the literature by the work of Pesaran and Pick (2003). The results obtained in this paper provide evidence favourable to the hypothesis of regional contagion in both Latin America and Asia. As a rule, contagion spread from the Asian crisis to Latin America but not in the opposite direction.

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  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes & Martin, Diógenes Manoel Leiva & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, 2009. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Textos para discussão 177, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:177
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    Cited by:

    1. Nistor, Costel & Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Razvan, 2012. "Impact of the global crisis on the linkages between CAC 40 and indexes from CEE countries," MPRA Paper 42511, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Sep 2012.
    2. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 837-848, May.
    3. Boubaker, Heni & Raza, Syed Ali, 2016. "On the dynamic dependence and asymmetric co-movement between the US and Central and Eastern European transition markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 459(C), pages 9-23.
    4. Rotta, Pedro Nielsen & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2013. "Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching," Textos para discussão 340, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    5. Ribeiro, André L.P. & Hotta, Luiz K., 2013. "An analysis of contagion among Asian countries using the canonical model of contagion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 62-69.
    6. Ahmad, Wasim & Sehgal, Sanjay & Bhanumurthy, N.R., 2013. "Eurozone crisis and BRIICKS stock markets: Contagion or market interdependence?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 209-225.
    7. Wasim Ahmad & N.R. Bhanumurthy & Sanjay Sehgal, 2014. "The Eurozone crisis and its contagion effects on the European stock markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 325-352, July.
    8. Woon Sau Leung & Nicholas Taylor, 2013. "Testing for contagion: the impact of US structured markets on international financial markets," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 11, pages 256-284 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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