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Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises

The paper surveys the types of models producing multiple equilibria in financial markets. It argues that such models are consistent with observed phenomena, such as the greater volatility of financial asset prices than of macroeconomic fundamentals. Alternative explanations are compared with the stylized facts concerning capital flows, portfolio shifts, and exchange rate crises. Implications for crisis prediction and prevention are then discussed.

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Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (1999)
Issue (Month): Sep ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1999:i:sep:x:6
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  1. Catherine A. Pattillo & Andrew Berg, 1998. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? a Test," IMF Working Papers 98/154, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Banerjee, Abhijit V, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817, August.
  4. Robert Brandon Kahn & Adam Bennett & María Vicenta Carkovic S. & Susan Schadler, 1993. "Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows," IMF Occasional Papers 108, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "The Mexican Peso Crisis: Sudden Death or Death Foretold?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1760, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent, 2008. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," CEPR Discussion Papers 6996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Olivier Jeanne & Bernard Bensaïd, 1996. "Fragilité des systèmes de change fixe et contrôle des capitaux," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 123(2), pages 163-174.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Velasco, A. & Chang, R., 1998. "The Asian Liquidity Crisis," Working Papers 98-27, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1986. "Rational and Self-fulfilling Balance-of-Payments Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 72-81, March.
  11. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
  12. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  13. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
  14. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2000. "Contagion, Monsoons, and Domestic Turmoil in Indonesia; A Case Study in the Asian Currency Crisis," IMF Working Papers 00/60, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 98/155, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes and Wisdom After the Fact," Discussion Papers 1992_18, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  17. Flood, Robert P. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 3-37, August.
  18. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
  19. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1998. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 587-97, June.
  20. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  21. Herrendorf, B. & Valentinyi, A. & Waldmann, R., 1998. "Ruling out indeterminacy: the role of heterogeneity," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9803, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  22. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  23. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
  24. Steven N. Durlauf, 1991. "Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 3629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  26. Enrica Detragiache, 1996. "Rational Liquidity Crises in the Sovereign Debt Market; In Search of a Theory," IMF Working Papers 96/38, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  28. Nancy Marion, 1999. "Some Parallels Between Currency and Banking Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 473-490, November.
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