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Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America

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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel
  • Sergio L. Schmukler

Abstract

Spillovers effects, from one country or region to other countries and regions, have attracted renewed attention in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis of December 1994. This paper uses data on closed-end country funds to study how a negative shock in Mexican equities is transmitted to Asia and Latin America, and to particular countries within each region. Country funds allow us to study the transmission to other fund net asset values (NAVs) and prices, which are traded in local stock markets in New York, respectively. The evidence indicates that shocks such as the Mexican crisis produce spillover effects which are less strong in Asia than in Latin America. The shocks seem to affect Latin American NAVs directly, while transmission to Asian NAVs appears to "pass through" the New York investor fund community, rather than directly from equity prices in Asia. Even though the data show that co-movements are stronger within each regional market --East Asia, Latin America, and New York-- than between them, investors do treat different countries differently. Shocks such as the Mexican 1994 crisis seem to have a stronger impact in countries with weak fundamentals. A high/export ratio makes the Philippines vulnerable, for example, despite its location in East Asia, while a low debt/export ratio makes Chile relative less vulnerable, despite its location in South America.
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  • Jeffrey A. Frankel & Sergio L. Schmukler, 1996. "Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 232-266.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:1996:p:232-266
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    Cited by:

    1. Ganapolsky, Eduardo J. J. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 1998. "The impact of policy announcements and news on capital markets : crisis management in Argentina during the Tequila Effect," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1951, The World Bank.
    2. Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "Interpreting the term structure of interbank rates in Hong Kong," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, pages 593-609.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2003. "The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 9479, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. G.G. Kaufman, 2000. "Banking and Currency Crises and Systemic Risk: A Taxonomy and Review," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 48, Netherlands Central Bank.
    5. Omar F. Saqib, 2002. "Interpreting Currency Crises: A Review of Theory, Evidence, and Issues," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 303, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Lizarazo, Sandra Valentina, 2013. "Default risk and risk averse international investors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 317-330.
    7. repec:eee:finana:v:54:y:2017:i:c:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Extremal dependence in European capital markets," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 9, pages 275-293, November.
    9. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Rating the Rating Agencies," MPRA Paper 24578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Emerson Fernandes Marcal & Pedro Valls Pereira & Diogenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Wilson Toshiro Nakamura, 2011. "Evaluation of contagion or interdependence in the financial crises of Asia and Latin America, considering the macroeconomic fundamentals," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(19), pages 2365-2379.
    11. Susanna Saroyan & Lilit Popoyan, 2017. "Bank-sovereign ties against interbank market integration: the case of the Italian segment," LEM Papers Series 2017/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    12. Radovan Vadovic, 2009. "Early, Late, and Multiple Bidding in Internet Auctions," Working Papers 0904, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    13. George G. Kaufman, 1999. "Banking and currency crises and systemic risk: a taxonomy and review," Working Paper Series WP-99-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    14. Morris Goldstein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Assessing Financial Vulnerability: An Early Warning System for Emerging Markets," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 100.
    15. Kristin Forbes, 2000. "The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-level Evidence on How Crises are Transmitted Internationally," NBER Working Papers 7807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Han, Ki C. & Lee, Suk Hun & Suk, David Y., 2003. "Mexican peso crisis and its spillover effects to emerging market debt," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 310-326, September.
    17. Reinhart, Carmen & Montiel, Peter, 2001. "The Dynamics of Capital Movements to Emerging Economies During the 1990s," MPRA Paper 7577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    19. Chul Park, Yung & Song, Chi-Young, 2001. "Institutional Investors, Trade Linkage, Macroeconomic Similarities, and Contagion of the Thai Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-224, June.
    20. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Rahul Sen & Reza Y. Siregar, 2002. "Hong Kong, Singapore and the East Asian Crisis: How Important were Trade Spillovers?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 503-537, April.
    21. Demir, Firat, 2006. "Volatility of short term capital flows, financial anarchy and private investment in emerging markets," MPRA Paper 3080, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2007.
    22. Jose Antonio R. Tan, III, 1998. "Contagion effects during the Asian financial crisis: stock price data," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 1999. "The Consequences and Management of Capital Inflows: Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 7901, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    East Asia ; Latin America;

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