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Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to test whether or not there was evidence of contagion across the various financial crises that assailed some countries in the 1990s. Data on sovereign debt bonds for Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Argentina were used to implement the test. The contagion hypothesis is tested using multivariate volatility models. If there is any evidence of structural break in volatility that can be linked to financial crises, the contagion hypothesis will be confirmed. Results suggest that there is evidence in favor of the contagion hypothesis.

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  • Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 2009. "Testing the hypothesis of contagion using multivariate volatility models," Textos para discussão 174, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:174
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    Cited by:

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    2. de Oliveira, Felipe A. & Maia, Sinézio F. & de Jesus, Diego P. & Besarria, Cássio da N., 2018. "Which information matters to market risk spreading in Brazil? Volatility transmission modelling using MGARCH-BEKK, DCC, t-Copulas," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-100.
    3. Diego Ferreira & Andreza A. Palma, 2022. "On the subprime crisis and the Latin American financial markets: A regime switching skew‐normal approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3300-3314, July.
    4. Rafał SIEDLECKI & Daniel PAPLA, 2016. "Conditional Correlation Coefficient As A Tool For Analysis Of Contagion In Financial Markets And Real Economy Indexes Based On The Synthetic Ratio," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(4), pages 287-299.
    5. Carvalho, João Vinícius de França & Chiann, Chang, 2013. "Redes Bayesianas: Um método para avaliação de interdependência e contágio em séries temporais multivariadas," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(2), June.
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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