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Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets

  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

    (Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Department of Economics, George Washington University and NBER (E-mail:

The crises in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia in the 1990s spread quite rapidly to countries as far apart as South Africa and Pakistan. In the aftermath of these crises, many emerging economies lost access to international capital markets. Using data on international primary issuance, this paper studies the determinants of contagion and sudden stops following those crises. The results indicate that contagion and sudden stops tend to occur in economies with financial fragility and current account problems. They also show that high integration in international capital markets exposes countries to sudden stops even in the absence of domestic vulnerabilities.

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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 08-E-10.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-10
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  1. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  3. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Sara Calvo, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?," Peterson Institute Press: Chapters, in: Guillermo A. Calvo & Morris Goldstein & Eduard Hochreiter (ed.), Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets After the Mexican Crisis, pages 151-171 Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
  6. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," Working Paper Series WP-99-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  9. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  10. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
  11. Roberto Rigobón & Kristin Forbes, 2001. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 1-46, January.
  12. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional," CEPR Discussion Papers 1947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Claessens, Stijn & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "How does foreign entry affect the domestic banking market?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1918, The World Bank.
  16. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers: A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
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