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Crises and Sudden Stops: Evidence from International Bond and Syndicated-Loan Markets

  • Graciela L. Kaminsky

    (Professor of Economics and International Affairs, Department of Economics, George Washington University and NBER (E-mail: graciela@gwu.edu))

The crises in Mexico, Thailand, and Russia in the 1990s spread quite rapidly to countries as far apart as South Africa and Pakistan. In the aftermath of these crises, many emerging economies lost access to international capital markets. Using data on international primary issuance, this paper studies the determinants of contagion and sudden stops following those crises. The results indicate that contagion and sudden stops tend to occur in economies with financial fragility and current account problems. They also show that high integration in international capital markets exposes countries to sudden stops even in the absence of domestic vulnerabilities.

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Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 08-E-10.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:08-e-10
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  1. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2008. "The center and the periphery: The globalization of financial turmoil," MPRA Paper 14100, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004. "The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation," MPRA Paper 14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 1998. "Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," CEPR Discussion Papers 2171, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Sara, 1996. "Capital Flows to Latin America: Is There Evidence of Contagion Effects?”," MPRA Paper 7124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. International Monetary Fund, 2000. "Spillovers Through Banking Centers; A Panel Data Analysis," IMF Working Papers 00/88, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2000. "Contagion in Latin America: Definitions, Measurement, and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 7885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Graciela Laura Kaminsky & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2008. "Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 12(2), pages 253-292.
  10. Michael P. Dooley, 1998. "A model of crises in emerging markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 630, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 1999. "Regional Contagion and the Globalization of Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 7153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000. "On crises, contagion, and confusion," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
  13. Claessens, Stijn & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 1998. "How does foreign entry affect the domestic banking market?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1918, The World Bank.
  14. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo & Leiderman, Leonardo, 1992. "Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America," MPRA Paper 13843, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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