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Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?


  • Gabriela Contreras
  • Alfredo Pistelli
  • Mariel Siravegna


This paper provides evidence on the importance of distinguishing among episodes of capital flow reversals driven by stop or reversal of gross capital inflows (sudden stops) and those explained by large surges in gross capital outflows (sudden flights). Besides finding that they have different economic effects, we find that their probability of occurrence depends on different factors. For robustness, we consider alternative methodologies for identifying reversal episodes, which seems important given the differences in incidence between identification criteria. Overall, sudden flight episodes have less economic impact than sudden stop episodes. The probability of occurrence of a sudden stop in capital inflows increases in countries that face negative external shocks, capital bonanzas or high dependence on external financing. Meanwhile, unlike sudden stop episodes, we did not find robust and statistically significant risk factors in the case of sudden flight episodes.

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  • Gabriela Contreras & Alfredo Pistelli & Mariel Siravegna, 2012. "Determinantes e Impacto de Episodios de Reversión Abrupta de Flujos de Capitales: ¿Es Distinto un Sudden Stop de un Sudden Flight?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 665, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:665

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sebastian Edwards, 2007. "Capital Controls, Sudden Stops, and Current Account Reversals," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 73-120 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    3. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    4. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "Monetary unions, external shocks and economic performance: A Latin American perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 225-247, December.
    5. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
    7. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
    8. Ozan Sula, 2010. "Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 589-605, September.
    9. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals and Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 10276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Joyce, Joseph P. & Nabar, Malhar, 2009. "Sudden stops, banking crises and investment collapses in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 314-322, November.
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