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Do sovereign credit ratings influence regional stock and bond market interdependencies in emerging countries?

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  • Christopher, Rachel
  • Kim, Suk-Joong
  • Wu, Eliza

Abstract

We investigate the permanent and transitory effects of sovereign credit ratings on time-varying stock and bond market correlations with their respective regional markets for a sample of up to nineteen emerging countries over the period from 1 January 1994 to 1 July 2007. We find that stock and bond market co-movements within a region respond heterogeneously to sovereign ratings information. Sovereign ratings and outlooks tend to be positively related to regional stock market co-movements suggesting that there are positive rating spillover effects whereby upgrades provide common benefits for neighboring countries in the region, however downgrades would lead to investors shifting funds from the downgraded market into the surrounding region. In contrast, sovereign rating and outlooks tend to be negatively related to regional bond market co-movements suggesting the existence of contagion during periods of ratings and outlook downgrades (negative rating spillover effects). We find the negative influence is concentrated in the countries that have higher foreign currency debt ratings than the regional average.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher, Rachel & Kim, Suk-Joong & Wu, Eliza, 2012. "Do sovereign credit ratings influence regional stock and bond market interdependencies in emerging countries?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 1070-1089.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:4:p:1070-1089
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.01.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Working Paper Series 1831, European Central Bank.
    2. Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Erturk, Mutahhar, 2016. "Do sovereign rating announcements have an impact on regional stock market co-movements? The case of Central and Eastern Europe," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 552-567.
    3. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," MPRA Paper 47390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    5. Ibrahim Fatnassi & Zied Ftiti & Habib Hasnaoui, 2014. "Stock Market Reactions to Sovereign Credit Rating Changes: Evidence from Four European Countries," Working Papers 2014-111, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Bernal, Oscar & Girard, Alexandre & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2016. "The importance of conflicts of interest in attributing sovereign credit ratings," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 48-66.
    7. Gonzalez-Perez, Maria T., 2015. "Model-free volatility indexes in the financial literature: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 141-159.
    8. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & Gwilym, Owain ap, 2015. "The credit signals that matter most for sovereign bond spreads with split rating," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 174-191.
    9. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Discussion Papers in Economics 21075, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    10. Böninghausen, Benjamin & Zabel, Michael, 2015. "Credit ratings and cross-border bond market spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 115-136.
    11. Ballester, Laura & González-Urteaga, Ana, 2017. "How credit ratings affect sovereign credit risk: Cross-border evidence in Latin American emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 200-214.
    12. repec:eee:ememar:v:37:y:2018:i:c:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Dimic, Nebojsa & Kiviaho, Jarno & Piljak, Vanja & Äijö, Janne, 2016. "Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 41-51.
    14. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    15. repec:eee:jimfin:v:85:y:2018:i:c:p:40-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Nico Katzke, 2013. "South African Sector Return Correlations: using DCC and ADCC Multivariate GARCH techniques to uncover the underlying dynamics," Working Papers 17/2013, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
    17. Williams, Gwion & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2015. "Does sovereign creditworthiness affect bank valuations in emerging markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 113-129.
    18. Ahmet Sensoy, 2016. "Impact of sovereign rating changes on stock market co-movements: the case of Latin America," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2600-2610, June.
    19. repec:hur:ijaraf:v:7:y:2017:i:4:p:146-159 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Sclip, Alex & Dreassi, Alberto & Miani, Stefano & Paltrinieri, Andrea, 2016. "Dynamic correlations and volatility linkages between stocks and sukuk: Evidence from international markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 34-44.
    21. Zabel, Michael & Böninghausen, Benjamin, 2013. "Credit Ratings and Cross-Border Bond Market Spillovers," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79724, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Emerging markets; Financial market linkages; Sovereign ratings; Stocks; Bonds;

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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