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How do sovereign credit rating changes affect private investment?

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  • Chen, Sheng-Syan
  • Chen, Hsien-Yi
  • Chang, Chong-Chuo
  • Yang, Shu-Ling

Abstract

Sovereign credit rating changes have an influence on real private investment of re-rated countries. We find significant increases in private investment growth following upgrades in sovereign ratings. These increases, however, are transitory. We also find significant, temporary declines in private investment growth following sovereign rating downgrades. The results hold after accounting for re-rated countries’ growth opportunities, endogeneity, and other factors that could affect private investment. The irreversible nature of investment may be the explanation for the temporary changes in the growth rates of physical capital investment associated with revisions in sovereign credit ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Sheng-Syan & Chen, Hsien-Yi & Chang, Chong-Chuo & Yang, Shu-Ling, 2013. "How do sovereign credit rating changes affect private investment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4820-4833.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:12:p:4820-4833
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.09.002
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    14. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2019. "Friends for the benefits: The effects of political ties on sovereign borrowing conditions," Research Discussion Papers 13/2019, Bank of Finland.
    15. Polito, Vito & Wickens, Mike, 2014. "Modelling the U.S. sovereign credit rating," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 202-218.
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    19. Bales, Kyle & Malikane, Christopher, 2020. "The effect of credit ratings on emerging market volatility," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    20. Abad, Pilar & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2018. "The influence of rating levels and rating convergence on the spillover effects of sovereign credit actions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-57.
    21. Hippolyte Balima & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "Do sovereign credit rating events affect the foreign exchange market? Evidence from a treatment effect analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 156-181, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign credit rating; Private investment; Irreversible investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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