IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i3p148-d1077166.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nader Naifar

    (College of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), P.O. Box 5701, Riyadh 11564, Saudi Arabia)

  • Shumokh Aljarba

    (College of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU), P.O. Box 5701, Riyadh 11564, Saudi Arabia)

Abstract

The recent geopolitical uncertainty and the alarming increase in the sovereign credit risk of many countries have motivated us to investigate the potential asymmetric co-movement between geopolitical risk and sovereign credit risk for nineteen countries (China, Russia, USA, Brazil, UK, South Korea, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Sweden, Spain, Norway, Italy, Morocco, France, Bahrain, Abu Dhabi, Japan, and Greece). Using data consisting of Sovereign Credit Default Swap (SCDS), Geopolitical Risk (GPR), and the Quantile-on-Quantile approach (QQA), empirical findings indicate that (i) the effects of GPR on SCDS were heterogeneous, mainly positive, asymmetric, and varied across quantiles and countries; (ii) when the SCDS and GPR are both in upper quantiles, the impacts of GPR are more pronounced; (iii) the countries with the most significant sovereign wealth funds (Norway, China, Saudi Arabia) are less affected by geopolitical uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Nader Naifar & Shumokh Aljarba, 2023. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:148-:d:1077166
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/148/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/148/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Raza, Naveed & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Oil volatility and sovereign risk of BRICS," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 258-269.
    2. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    3. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    4. Fathi Abid & Nader Naifar, 2006. "The Determinants Of Credit Default Swap Rates: An Explanatory Study," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 23-42.
    5. Eyssell, Thomas & Fung, Hung-Gay & Zhang, Gaiyan, 2013. "Determinants and price discovery of China sovereign credit default swaps," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-15.
    6. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    7. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    8. Feng, Chaonan & Han, Liyan & Vigne, Samuel & Xu, Yang, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Jongsub Lee & Andy Naranjo & Stace Sirmans, 2016. "Exodus from Sovereign Risk: Global Asset and Information Networks in the Pricing of Corporate Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(4), pages 1813-1856, August.
    10. Jun Pan & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2008. "Default and Recovery Implicit in the Term Structure of Sovereign CDS Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(5), pages 2345-2384, October.
    11. Alam, Ahmed W. & Houston, Reza & Farjana, Ashupta, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and corporate investment: How do politically connected firms respond?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Mathias Manguzvane & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Exchange rate risk and sovereign debt risk in South Africa: A Regime Dependent Approach," Economics Working Papers edwrg-04-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    3. Chuffart, Thomas & Hooper, Emma, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 904-916.
    4. Kutuk, Yasin & Barokas, Lina, 2022. "Multivariate CDS risk premium prediction with SOTA RNNs on MI[N]T countries," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    5. Sabkha, Saker & de Peretti, Christian & Hmaied, Dorra, 2019. "Nonlinearities in the oil effects on the sovereign credit risk: A self-exciting threshold autoregression approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-133.
    6. Fornari, Fabio & Zaghini, Andrea, 2022. "It’s not time to make a change: Sovereign fragility and the corporate credit risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Dim, Chukwuma & Koerner, Kevin & Wolski, Marcin & Zwart, Sanne, 2022. "Hot off the press: News-implied sovereign default risk," EIB Working Papers 2022/06, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    8. Nader Naifar & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2019. "Do Energy and Banking CDS Sector Spreads Reflect Financial Risks and Economic Policy Uncertainty? A Time-Scale Decomposition Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 507-534, August.
    9. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    10. Taurai Muvunza & Yong Jiang, 2023. "Determinants and hedging effectiveness of China's sovereign credit default swaps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 2074-2087, April.
    11. Ruggero Jappelli & Loriana Pelizzon & Alberto Plazzi, 2021. "The Core, the Periphery, and the Disaster: Corporate-Sovereign Nexus in COVID-19 Times," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-30, Swiss Finance Institute.
    12. Rodrigo Alfaro Alfaro & Carlos A. Medel & Carola Moreno, 2017. "An Analysis of the Impact of External Financial Risks on the Sovereign Risk Premium of Latin American Economies," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 32(2), pages 131-153, October.
    13. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    14. Chang, Jeffery (Jinfan) & Du, Huancheng & Lou, Dong & Polk, Christopher, 2022. "Ripples into waves: Trade networks, economic activity, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 217-238.
    15. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    16. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Tail event-based sovereign credit risk transmission network during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    17. Zhang, Wenlong & Zhang, Gaiyan & Helwege, Jean, 2022. "Cross country linkages and transmission of sovereign risk: Evidence from China’s credit default swaps," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    18. Mikhail Stolbov, 2017. "Determinants of sovereign credit risk: the case of Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 51-70, January.
    19. Gerardo Manzo & Antonio Picca, 2020. "The Impact of Sovereign Shocks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(7), pages 3113-3132, July.
    20. Arakelyan, Armen & Rubio, Gonzalo & Serrano, Pedro, 2015. "The reward for trading illiquid maturities in credit default swap markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 376-389.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:148-:d:1077166. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.