IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/palcom/v12y2025i1d10.1057_s41599-025-04985-8.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic linkages and determinants of sovereign CDS and exchange rates: evidence from G7 and BRICS

Author

Listed:
  • Min Su

    (Taiyuan University of Technology)

  • Yixuan Ren

    (Taiyuan University of Technology)

  • Yifang Niu

    (Taiyuan University of Technology)

  • Zhen Wang

    (Taiyuan University of Technology)

Abstract

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, global public debt has escalated, further intensified by ongoing geopolitical tensions. This paper explores the dynamic relationship between sovereign credit risk and exchange rate fluctuations through the innovative application of an ARMA-cDCC-FIGARCH model, focusing on the impact of national characteristics on this correlation. Our findings reveal that depreciations and increased volatility in exchange rates significantly amplify sovereign default risks, with substantial risk spillover effects observed globally. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that financial deepening, trade dependency, and market risk premiums exacerbate the spillovers of sovereign risk into exchange rate fluctuations. In contrast, high debt ratios diminish in influence over time, and robust foreign exchange reserves serve as effective mitigators. These insights provide vital guidance for policymakers and international investors, emphasizing strategic factors critical in managing the complex interdependencies between sovereign risk and currency valuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Min Su & Yixuan Ren & Yifang Niu & Zhen Wang, 2025. "Dynamic linkages and determinants of sovereign CDS and exchange rates: evidence from G7 and BRICS," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04985-8
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-025-04985-8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41599-025-04985-8
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41599-025-04985-8?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2024. "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1243-1290.
    2. Pablo Ottonello & Diego J. Perez, 2019. "The Currency Composition of Sovereign Debt," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 174-208, July.
    3. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Pasquale Della Corte & Lucio Sarno & Maik Schmeling & Christian Wagner, 2022. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(8), pages 5591-5617, August.
    5. Yang Liu & Bruce Morley, 2012. "Sovereign credit default swaps and the macroeconomy," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(2), pages 129-132, February.
    6. Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Gloria Sarmiento, 2018. "Sovereign risk and the real exchange rate: A non-linear approach," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 1-14.
    7. Chernov, Mikhail & Creal, Drew & Hördahl, Peter, 2023. "Sovereign credit and exchange rate risks: Evidence from Asia-Pacific local currency bonds," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Chaumont, Gaston & Gordon, Grey & Sultanum, Bruno & Tobin, Elliot, 2024. "Sovereign debt and credit default swaps," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "How do sovereign risk, equity and foreign exchange derivatives markets interact?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 58-78.
    10. Daehler, Timo B. & Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2021. "Emerging markets sovereign CDS spreads during COVID-19: Economics versus epidemiology news," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    11. Crosignani, Matteo, 2021. "Bank capital, government bond holdings, and sovereign debt capacity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 693-704.
    12. Min Su, 2023. "Modelling sovereign credit ratings and assessing the impartiality: A case study of China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(9), pages 1-26, September.
    13. António Afonso & Pedro Gomes & Philipp Rother, 2011. "Short‐ and long‐run determinants of sovereign debt credit ratings," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, January.
    14. Hill, Paula & Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Faff, Robert, 2018. "New evidence on sovereign to corporate credit rating spill-overs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 209-225.
    15. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Sadaba, Barbara, 2018. "Assessing the predictive ability of sovereign default risk on exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-264.
    16. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    17. Bernoth, Kerstin & Herwartz, Helmut, 2021. "Exchange rates, foreign currency exposure and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    18. Liu, Chang & Sun, Xiaolei & Li, Jianping, 2023. "Time-frequency comovements between sovereign CDS and exchange rates: The role of sentiments," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    19. Ioannis A. Tampakoudis & Demetres N. Subeniotis & Ioannis G. Kroustalis, 2018. "Sovereign credit default swap and bond markets' dynamics: evidence from the European debt crisis," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(2), pages 110-125.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    21. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    22. Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
    23. Fontana, Alessandro & Scheicher, Martin, 2016. "An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 126-140.
    24. Feng, Qianqian & Sun, Xiaolei & Liu, Chang & Li, Jianping, 2021. "Spillovers between sovereign CDS and exchange rate markets: The role of market fear," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    25. Masaru Tsuruta, 2024. "Interaction between Sovereign Quanto Credit Default Swap Spreads and Currency Options," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-33, February.
    26. Hippolyte Balima & Alexandru Minea & Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "Do sovereign credit rating events affect the foreign exchange market? Evidence from a treatment effect analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 90(1), pages 156-181, July.
    27. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Bond Risk Premia and The Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 497-520, December.
    28. Nader Naifar & Shumokh Aljarba, 2023. "Does Geopolitical Risk Matter for Sovereign Credit Risk? Fresh Evidence from Nonlinear Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-17, February.
    29. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    30. Prayer M. Rikhotso & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne, 2022. "Dependence Structures between Sovereign Credit Default Swaps and Global Risk Factors in BRICS Countries," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-22, February.
    31. repec:eid:wpaper:03/11 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Brian BARNARD, 2019. "Sovereign Credit Rating, Rating Migration, and the Risk-Free Rate: A Joint Markov Process and Random Walk Modelling of the Risk-Free Rate," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 7(1), pages 32-44.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Reinhold Heinlein & Gabriella D. Legrenzi & Scott M. R. Mahadeo & Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi, 2024. "Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk: A Nonlinear Approach Based on Local Gaussian Correlations," CESifo Working Paper Series 11019, CESifo.
    2. Bajaj, Vimmy & Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Linkage dynamics of sovereign credit risk and financial markets: A bibliometric analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Mensi, Walid & Gemici, Eray & Polat, Müslüm & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2025. "Markov switching volatility connectedness across international CDS markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Carlos Giraldo & Iader Giraldo & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jorge M. Uribe, 2024. "Term Spread Spillovers to Latin America and Emergence of the ‘Twin Ds’," Documentos de trabajo 21169, FLAR.
    5. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2024. "Term spread spillovers to Latin America and emergence of the ‘Twin Ds’," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    6. Lu Yang & Lei Yang & Xue Cui, 2023. "Sovereign default network and currency risk premia," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    7. Mustafa Tevfik KARTAL, 2022. "The Role of Macroeconomic and Market Indicators in Explaining Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) Spread Changes: Evidence from Türkiye," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 145-164, April.
    8. Jorge M. Uribe & Oscar Valencia, 2024. "Taking the Pulse of Fiscal Distress: Inflation, Depreciation, and Crises," IREA Working Papers 202416, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Dec 2024.
    9. Calice, Giovanni & Lin, Ming-Tsung, 2024. "Sovereign momentum currency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    10. Huthaifa Alqaralleh, 2024. "The sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads and Chinese Sectors Stock Market: A Causality in Quantile and Dependence Analysis," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 845-866, December.
    11. Mr. Frigyes F Heinz & Ms. Yan M Sun, 2014. "Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers," IMF Working Papers 2014/017, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Cross-Country Linkages and Asymmetries of Sovereign Risk Pluralistic Investigation of CDS Spreads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-10, October.
    13. Marcia Millon Cornette & Hamid Mehran & Kevin Pan & Minh Phan & Chenyang Wei, 2014. "CDS and equity market reactions to stock issuances in the U.S. financial industry: evidence from the 2002-13 period," Staff Reports 697, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    14. Drakos, Anastasios & Moratis, Georgios, 2024. "The impact of COVID-19 on sovereign contagion," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Gätjen, Rebekka & Schienle, Melanie, 2015. "Measuring connectedness of Euro area sovereign risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-019, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    16. Asandului, Mircea & Lupu, Dan & Mursa, Gabriel Claudiu & Muşetescu, Radu, 2015. "Dynamic relations between CDS and stock markets in Eastern European countries," MPRA Paper 95506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies? Panel evidence from the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 118-124.
    18. Veronika Kajurova & Jana Hvozdenska, 2016. "Linkages between CDS, bond and stock markets: Evidence from Europe," MENDELU Working Papers in Business and Economics 2016-63, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    19. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Politsidis, Panagiotis N., 2023. "Sovereign bond and CDS market contagion: A story from the Eurozone crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    20. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:12:y:2025:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-025-04985-8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.nature.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.