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Oil Price Uncertainty and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Asian Economies

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  • Sharma, Susan
  • Thuraisamy, Sivananthan

Abstract

In this paper, we test whether oil price uncertainty predicts CDS returns for eight Asian countries. We use the Westerlund and Narayan (2011, 2012) predictability test that takes into consideration persistency, endogeneity, and heteroskedasticity of the data. In-sample evidence reveals that oil price uncertainty can predict CDS returns for three Asian countries whereas the out-of-sample evidence suggests that oil price uncertainty can predict CDS returns for six countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Sharma, Susan & Thuraisamy, Sivananthan, 2012. "Oil Price Uncertainty and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Asian Economies," Working Papers fe_2012_02, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:dkn:ecomet:fe_2012_02
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:258-269 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gannon, Gerard L. & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2017. "Sovereign risk and the impact of crisis: Evidence from Latin AmericaAuthor-Name: Batten, Jonathan A," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 328-350.
    3. Ho, Sin-Yu & Njindan Iyke, Bernard, 2017. "Consumption and Exchange Rate Uncertainty: Evidence from Selected Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 80096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," Working Papers halshs-01211506, HAL.
    5. Bouri, Elie & de Boyrie, Maria E. & Pavlova, Ivelina, 2017. "Volatility transmission from commodity markets to sovereign CDS spreads in emerging and frontier countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 155-165.
    6. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Ahmed, Huson Ali, 2014. "Importance of skewness in decision making: Evidence from the Indian stock exchange," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 260-269.
    7. Westerlund, Joakim & Thuraisamy, Kannan, 2016. "Panel multi-predictor test procedures with an application to emerging market sovereign risk," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 44-60.
    8. Nader Naifar & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2017. "The Impact of Major Oil, Financial and Uncertainty Factors on Sovereign CDS Spreads: Evidence from GCC, Other Oil-Exporting Countries and Regional Markets," Working Papers 1129, Economic Research Forum, revised 08 2017.
    9. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Ferrer, Roman & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2017. "Asymmetric determinants of CDS spreads: U.S. industry-level evidence through the NARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 211-230.
    10. Emma Hooper, 2015. "Oil and Gas, which is the Belle of the Ball ? The Impact of Oil and Gas Reserves on Sovereign Risk," AMSE Working Papers 1540, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, Marseille, France, revised 02 Oct 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price uncertainty; Predictability; Asian markets; CDS returns;

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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