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Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis


  • Fender, Ingo
  • Hayo, Bernd
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias


In this paper, we study the determinants of daily spreads for emerging market sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) over the period April 2002–December 2011. Using GARCH models, we find, first, that daily CDS spreads for emerging market sovereigns are more related to global and regional risk premia than to country-specific risk factors. This result is particularly evident during the second subsample (August 2007–December 2011), where neither macroeconomic variables nor country ratings significantly explain CDS spread changes. Second, measures of US bond, equity, and CDX High Yield returns, as well as emerging market credit returns, are the most dominant drivers of CDS spread changes. Finally, our analysis suggests that CDS spreads are more strongly influenced by international spillover effects during periods of market stress than during normal times.

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  • Fender, Ingo & Hayo, Bernd & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2012. "Daily pricing of emerging market sovereign CDS before and during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2786-2794.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:36:y:2012:i:10:p:2786-2794 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.06.017

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
    2. repec:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:2:p:232-248 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Calice, Giovanni & Ioannidis, Christos & Miao, RongHui, 2016. "A Markov switching unobserved component analysis of the CDX index term premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 189-204.
    4. Blommestein, Hans & Eijffinger, Sylvester & Qian, Zongxin, 2016. "Regime-dependent determinants of Euro area sovereign CDS spreads," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 10-21.
    5. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Nor, Safwan Mohd & Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh & Mensi, Walid, 2017. "Interdependence and contagion among industry-level US credit markets: An application of wavelet and VMD based copula approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 466(C), pages 310-324.
    6. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    7. Stolbov, Mikhail, 2014. "The causal linkages between sovereign CDS prices for the BRICS and major European economies," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 8, pages 1-43.
    8. Corò, Filippo & Dufour, Alfonso & Varotto, Simone, 2013. "Credit and liquidity components of corporate CDS spreads," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5511-5525.
    9. Maria E. de Boyrie & Ivelina Pavlova, 2016. "Dynamic interdependence of sovereign credit default swaps in BRICS and MIST countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 563-575, February.
    10. Blau, Benjamin M. & Roseman, Brian S., 2014. "The reaction of European credit default swap spreads to the U.S. credit rating downgrade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-141.
    11. Hassan, Kamrul & Hoque, Ariful & Gasbarro, Dominic, 2017. "Sovereign default risk linkage: Implication for portfolio diversification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-16.
    12. Oleg Deev & Martin Hodula, 2016. "Sovereign default risk and state-owned bank fragility in emerging markets: evidence from China and Russia," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 232-248, April.
    13. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11721 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Chiarella, Carl & ter Ellen, Saskia & He, Xue-Zhong & Wu, Eliza, 2015. "Fear or fundamentals? Heterogeneous beliefs in the European sovereign CDS market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 19-34.
    15. Galariotis, Emilios C. & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2016. "Sovereign CDS spread determinants and spill-over effects during financial crisis: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 62-77.
    16. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Tseng, Yung-Ching & Yang, Chung-Jen, 2014. "Commonality in liquidity, liquidity distribution, and financial crisis: Evidence from country ETFs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 35-58.
    17. repec:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:60-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Arkady Gevorkyan & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic variables and the sovereign risk premia in EMU, non-EMU EU, and developed countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-35, February.
    19. Lahiani, Amine & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Linkages between financial sector CDS spreads and macroeconomic influence in a nonlinear setting," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 443-456.
    20. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    21. Maalaoui Chun, Olfa & Dionne, Georges & François, Pascal, 2014. "Credit spread changes within switching regimes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 41-55.
    22. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi, 2013. "The links between some European financial factors and the BRICS credit default swap spreads," Post-Print hal-01511898, HAL.
    23. El Abed, Riadh & Zardoub, Amna, 2017. "Time varying and asymmetric effect between sovereign credit market and financial market: The asymmetric DCC model," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-97, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    24. repec:eee:asieco:v:53:y:2017:i:c:p:56-66 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item


    Credit default swaps; Emerging markets; Financial crisis; Spillovers;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets


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