The pricing of subprime mortgage risk in good times and bad: evidence from the ABX.HE indices
This paper investigates the market pricing of subprime mortgage risk on the basis of data for the ABX.HE family of indices, which have become a key barometer of mortgage market conditions during the recent financial crisis. After an introduction into ABX index mechanics and a discussion of historical pricing patterns, we use regression analysis to establish the relationship between observed index returns and macroeco-nomic news as well as market based proxies of default risk, interest rates, liquidity and risk appetite. The results imply that declining risk appetite and heightened concerns about market illiquidity - likely due in part to significant short positioning activity -have provided a sizeable contribution to the observed collapse in ABX prices since the summer of 2007. In particular, while fundamental factors, such as indicators of housing market activity, have continued to exert an important influence on the subordinated ABX indices, those backed by AA and AAA exposures have tended to react more to the general deterioration of the financial market environment. This provides further support for the inappropriateness of pricing models that do not sufficiently account for factors such as risk appetite and liquidity risk, particularly in periods of heightened market pressure. In addition, as related risk premia can be captured by unconstrained investors, ABX pricing patterns appear to lend support to government measures aimed at taking troubled assets off banks’ balance sheets - such as the US Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in its original form. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13, G14
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany|
Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page: http://www.ecb.europa.eu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Haibin Zhu & Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou, 2005. "Explaining credit default swap spreads with equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms," BIS Working Papers 181, Bank for International Settlements.
- Michelle A. Danis & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2005.
"The delinquency of subprime mortgages,"
2005-022, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market," NBER Working Papers 10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo, Rodolfo, 2009.
"The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(01), pages 109-132, February.
- Jan Ericsson & Kris Jacobs & Rodolfo A. Oviedo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-55, CIRANO.
- Ericsson, Jan & Jacobs, Kris & Oviedo-Helfenberger, Rodolfo, 2004. "The Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia," SIFR Research Report Series 32, Institute for Financial Research.
- Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997.
"What moves the bond market?,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
- Benjamin Y. Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2005.
"Explaining credit default swap spreads with the equity volatility and jump risks of individual firms,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2005-63, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Benjamin Yibin Zhang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "Explaining Credit Default Swap Spreads with the Equity Volatility and Jump Risks of Individual Firms," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(12), pages 5099-5131, December.
- Paul S. Mills & John Kiff, 2007. "Money for Nothing and Checks for Free; Recent Developments in U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets," IMF Working Papers 07/188, International Monetary Fund.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "The Determinants of Credit Spread Changes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2177-2207, December.
- Campbell, John & Taksler, Glen, 2003.
"Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields,"
3153307, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 8961, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- John Y. Campbell & Glen B. Taksler, 2002. "Equity Volatility and Corporate Bond Yields," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1945, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Cantor, Richard, 2004. "An introduction to recent research on credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2565-2573, November.
- Charles W. Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2008. "The Foreclosure-House Price Nexus: Lessons from the 2007-2008 Housing Turmoil," NBER Working Papers 14294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- V. Coudert & M. Gex, 2008.
"Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators,"
- Coudert, Virginie & Gex, Mathieu, 2008. "Does risk aversion drive financial crises? Testing the predictive power of empirical indicators," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 167-184, March.
- Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2007. "Does Risk Aversion Drive Financial Crises? Testing the Predictive Power of Empirical Indicators," Working Papers 2007-02, CEPII research center.
- Ingo Fender & Martin Scheicher, 2008. "The ABX: how do the markets price subprime mortgage risk?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
- Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
- Ingo Fender & John Kiff, 2004. "CDO rating methodology: Some thoughts on model risk and its implications," BIS Working Papers 163, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jeffery D Amato & Eli M Remolona, 2003. "The credit spread puzzle," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
- Ashcraft, Adam B. & Schuermann, Til, 2008.
"Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit,"
Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance,
now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 191-309, June.
- Adam B. Ashcraft & Til Schuermann, 2008. "Understanding the securitization of subprime mortgage credit," Staff Reports 318, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Joshua D. Coval & Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford, 2009. "Economic Catastrophe Bonds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 628-666, June.
- Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
- Bruce Mizrach, 2008. "Jump and Cojump Risk in Subprime Home Equity Derivatives," Departmental Working Papers 200802, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Ying Huang & Salih Neftci & Ira Jersey, 2002. "What Drives Swap Spreads, Credit or Liquidity?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2003-05, Henley Business School, Reading University.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091056. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.